Russian Oil Tankers. REUTERS/Tatiana Meel/File Photo

A view shows tankers in Nakhodka Bay near the crude oil terminal Kozmino outside the port city of Nakhodka, Russia June 13, 2022. REUTERS/Tatiana Meel

Russia’s Crude Flows Surge to the Highest in More Than Two Years

Bloomberg
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October 14, 2025

By Julian Lee (Bloomberg) — Russia’s seaborne crude shipments rose to a 28-month high in the past four weeks, amid rising production and Ukrainian attacks on refineries that are forcing the diversion of supplies to export terminals.

Four-week average shipments from the country’s ports were 3.74 million barrels a day to Oct. 12, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg, the highest since June 2023. The average provides a clearer picture of underlying trends than more volatile weekly figures.

Moscow has been slowly boosting its crude production in line with a rising target under a months-long drive by the OPEC+ producer group to return supplies to the market. Since March, before the move began, Russia’s production target has increased by more than 500,000 barrels a day.

The amount of crude available for export has also been swelled in recent weeks by intensifying Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries. At least 28 attacks have been launched since the start of August, compared with a total of 21 in the first seven months of the year.

Crude that can’t be processed as a result of the strikes is likely being diverted for export through Russia’s Baltic and Black Sea ports. Shipments from Primorsk, Ust-Luga and Novorossiysk averaged 2.3 million barrels a day in the latest four-week period. That could leave very little effective spare capacity at the terminals, particularly with the approach of winter when adverse weather conditions can impact loading operations.

Crude Shipments

A total of 35 tankers loaded 27.2 million barrels of Russian crude in the week to Oct. 12, vessel-tracking data and port-agent reports show. The volume was virtually unchanged from 27.17 million barrels on the same number of ships the previous week.

Tankers Loading Crude at Russian Terminals | 35 tankers loaded Russian crude in the week to October 12
On a daily average basis, shipments in the week to Oct. 12 hit 3.89 million barrels a day, the highest in five weeks. In addition, two cargoes of Kazakhstan’s Kebco grade were shipped during the week, one each from Ust-Luga and Novorossiysk.

Drops in exports from Russia’s Black Sea and Arctic ports were more than offset by an increase in shipments from the Baltic and the Pacific.

Export Value

On a four-week average basis, the gross value of Moscow’s exports rose by about $60 million to a one-year high of $1.49 billion a week in the 28 days to Oct. 12.

Using this measure, the export prices of Russia’s Urals from the Baltic and Black Sea were virtually unchanged at $54.78 and $55.08 a barrel respectively. The price of Pacific ESPO slipped by $0.40 a barrel to average $62.02 a barrel. Delivered prices in India were up by $0.10 a barrel to $65.61 a barrel, all according to numbers from Argus Media.

On a weekly basis, the value of exports averaged about $1.53 billion in the 7 days to Oct. 12, little changed from the period to Oct. 5.

The price of Urals cargoes from the Baltic fell by about $0.40 a barrel to average $53.87, while the value of shipments from the Black Sea slipped by $0.20 to $54.35 a barrel during the week.

The price of key Pacific grade ESPO was down by $0.70 a barrel to average $60.92 a barrel.

Flows by Destination

Observed shipments to Russia’s Asian customers, including those showing no final destination, rose to 3.4 million barrels a day in the 28 days to Oct. 12, up from a revised 3.19 million barrels a day in the period to Oct. 5 to reach their highest since June 2023.

While the amount of Russian crude heading to both China and India appears to be falling steeply, there are growing quantities on vessels yet to show a final destination for that pattern to be reversed. Tankers are increasingly showing no final destination until they are well across the Arabian Sea, while some never show a final destination, even after mooring to discharge.

Flows on tankers signaling Chinese ports fell to 1.1 million barrels a day in the four weeks to Oct. 12, while the amount destined for India fell to 810,000 barrels a day. But there is the equivalent of almost 1.5 million barrels a day on vessels yet to show a final destination.

Of that, about 1.2 million barrels a day is on ships from Russia’s western ports showing their destination as Port Said or the Suez Canal, or those from Pacific ports with no clear delivery point, and a further 270,000 barrels a day is on tankers yet to signal a destination.

Russia’s Asian Customers | Shipments of Russian crude to Asian buyers in million barrels a day
Flows to Turkey in the four weeks to Oct. 12 slipped back to about 310,000 barrels a day from a revised 340,000 barrels a day in the period to Oct. 5. Shipments to Syria were unchanged at about 35,000 barrels a day.

© 2025 Bloomberg L.P.

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