Russia’s Crude Exports Lose Momentum After Baltic Flows Targeted

By Prejula Prem (Bloomberg) — Russia’s weekly crude exports slumped, driven by a slide in Baltic shipments following Ukrainian drone strikes that affected key regional facilities.

Seaborne weekly flows averaged about 3.18 million barrels a day in the period to Sept. 14, down 934,000 barrels a day from the previous week, the sharpest decline since July last year, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg.

Still, the less volatile four-week average edged up to 3.46 million barrels a day, from a revised 3.42 million in the period to Sept. 7. The uptick reflects outsized volumes in the prior week, which were driven by Urals shipments from the country’s Black Sea and Baltic ports. The average provides a clearer picture of underlying trends. 

Ukrainian drones hit Russia’s Baltic hub at Primorsk last week, prompting a brief suspension of operations and damaging two tankers. Weekly exports from the terminal plunged to the lowest since late July. Flows from another Baltic port, Ust-Luga, were only half of the prior week, possibly as a result of strikes on three pumping stations that feed the terminal.

Ukraine’s unprecedented targeting off Russia’s oil infrastructure — from ports to refineries — has intensified focus among traders about whether the actions could ultimately result in a material loss of supply. Monitoring of seaborne flows offers some clues.

Sustained drone strikes on the country’s refineries have slashed processing rates, potentially freeing more crude for exports. However, the attacks on the export hubs may have capped additional flows. In the wake of the attacks, pipeline operator Transneft reportedly limited storage in its network, and warned producers they may need to cut output if the situation deteriorates. The firm later denied issuing the output warning.

Crude Shipments

A total of 29 tankers loaded 22.26 million barrels of Russian crude in the week to Sept. 14, vessel-tracking data and port-agent reports show. The volume was down from a revised 28.79 million barrels on 38 ships the previous week.

Exports from Primorsk dropped to about 730,000 barrels a day on seven tankers. Meanwhile, flows from Ust-Luga terminal halved to about 313,000 barrels a day, hauled on three tankers.

Shipments from Novorossiysk eased to 647,000 barrels a day aboard five tankers, down from the highest volume since at least the start of the war in early 2022. In addition, there was one shipment of Kazakhstan’s KEBCO crude during the week from Novorossiysk.

Export Value

The gross value of Moscow’s exports dropped by about $372 million, the biggest week-on-week decline since November. Revenue was about $1.28 billion in the week to Sept. 14, 22% below the revised $1.66 billion in the prior week.

Urals cargoes from the Baltic dropped by about $0.90 a barrel to average $54.03 a barrel, while shipments from the Black Sea declined by $1.10 a barrel to $54.19 a barrel during the week.

The price of key Pacific grade ESPO slipped by $0.60 a barrels to average $62.51 a barrel. Delivered prices in India fell by $0.60 a barrel to $64.45 a barrel, all according to numbers from Argus Media.

On a four-week average basis, the export prices of Russia’s Urals from the Baltic and Black Sea were down by $0.30 a barrel each, averaging $54.55 a barrel and $54.96 a barrel respectively, while Pacific ESPO climbed by $0.20 a barrel to $63.35 a barrel.

Using this measure, the value of exports edged higher by about $15 million from the period to Sept. 7, averaging about $1.4 billion a week.

Flows by Destination

Observed shipments to Russia’s Asian customers, including those showing no final destination, rose to 3.08 million barrels a day in the 28 days to Sept. 14, up from a revised 3.05 million barrels a day in the period to Sept. 7.

The figures include about 520,000 barrels a day on ships from Russia’s western ports showing their destination as Port Said or the Suez Canal, or those from Pacific ports with no clear delivery point, and a further 50,000 barrels a day on tankers yet to signal a destination.

Flows to Turkey in the four weeks to Sept. 14 were unchanged at about 313,000 barrels a day. Shipments to Syria edged up to about 63,000 barrels a day.

NOTES

This story forms part of a weekly series tracking shipments of crude from Russian export terminals and the gross value of those flows. The next update will be on Tuesday, Sept. 23.

All figures exclude cargoes identified as Kazakhstan’s KEBCO grade. Those are shipments made by KazTransoil JSC that transit Russia for export through Novorossiysk and Ust-Luga and are not subject to European Union sanctions or a price cap. The Kazakh barrels are blended with crude of Russian origin to create a uniform export stream. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Kazakhstan has rebranded its cargoes to distinguish them from those shipped by Russian companies.

Bloomberg classifies ship-to-ship transfers as clandestine if automated position signals appear to be switched off or falsified — a tactic known as spoofing — to hide the two vessels involved coming together to make the cargo switch.

Vessel-tracking data are cross-checked against port-agent reports as well as flows and ship movements reported by other information providers including Kpler and Vortexa Ltd.

To contact the author of this story:
Prejula Prem in London at [email protected]

© 2025 Bloomberg L.P.

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