Russian Oil Backed Up at Sea After India’s Refiners Step Away

By Julian Lee

Jan 28, 2026 (Bloomberg) –India’s pullback from Russian oil imports is leaving Moscow with the dilemma of what to do with all the crude that it’s pumping onto tankers but is unable to offload at refineries.

Russia shipped 3.18 million barrels a day in the four weeks to Jan. 25, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s little changed from the period to Jan. 18, but down by about 680,000 barrels a day from the pre-Christmas peak and the lowest since August.

Deliveries of Russian crude into Indian ports slumped last month, falling to about 1.2 million barrels a day, the lowest in more than three years. Initial indications suggest that they’ve fallen even further in January, with tracking data showing imports averaging 1.12 million barrels a day in the first 25 days. The drop coincides with a European Union ban on imports of refined products made from Russian crude, which came into effect on Jan. 21.

The drop in India’s purchases has led to a sharp increase in the number of tankers idling off its coast and nearby Oman in recent weeks. While the number of ships waiting near Oman is slowly dwindling, most of those that have left are now anchored closer to the Indian shoreline, while others are heading toward China. Only one has offloaded its cargo.

Russian shippers also appear to be making use of storage tanks in Indonesia. At least three cargoes have been discharged in recent weeks at Karimun, opposite Singapore, Balikpapan in Borneo and Tanjung Intan on the island of Java, the tracking data show.

The amount of Russian crude held on tankers has stabilized at about 140 million barrels. That figure is lower than earlier estimates after revisions to historical data, but the rapid build-up of Russian crude at sea remains unchanged, with about 60 million barrels added since late-August. 

Adding to the pressure, the European Union and the UK appear to be toughening up their response to the shadow fleet of tankers hauling sanctioned oil, and that may be having an impact on vessels involved in the Russian trade. On Thursday, the French navy seized the oil tanker Grinch in the the Mediterranean Sea. The same day, two other tankers hauling Russian barrels from Murmansk made U-turns and headed back to the Arctic port. The Huihai Pacific was heading toward the North Sea when it altered course, while the Adonia was off the North Cape. Both U-turns happened within hours of the seizure of the Grinch.

Separately, an easing up of attacks by Ukraine on Russian oil infrastructure since the start of the year had little impact on refining rates in the first half of January. Processing was running about 5% below the normal seasonal level during the first two weeks of the month.

Crude Shipments

A total of 31 tankers loaded 23.39 million barrels of Russian crude in the week to Jan. 25, vessel-tracking data and port-agent reports show. The volume was up from a revised 21.71 million barrels on 29 ships the previous week.

On a daily average basis, shipments in the week to Jan. 25 rose to 3.34 million barrels a day, up by about 240,000 barrels a day from the previous week.

The flows are volatile, affected by weather, maintenance work, sanctions and the timing of shipments.

Separately, one cargo of Kazakhstan’s Kebco grade was shipped from Novorossiysk during the week.

The expansion in flows last week was driven by an increase shipments from the Baltic ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga.

Export Value

On a four-week average basis, the gross value of Moscow’s exports edged up to $920 million a week in the 28 days to Jan. 25, rising by 2% from the period to Jan. 18. The second straight increase in average prices combined with stable flows to boost the value of shipments above $1 billion a week for the first time in five weeks.

Using this measure, the export prices of Russia’s Urals from the Baltic rose by about $0.90 to $38.44 a barrel and Black Sea cargoes were up by about $0.70 a barrel to $35.98. The price of Pacific ESPO crude edged up by $0.40 to average $47.43 a barrel. Delivered prices in India rose by $0.60 to $56.27 a barrel, their highest in four weeks. All prices are according to numbers from Argus Media.

On a weekly basis, the value of exports averaged about $1 billion in the 7 days to Jan. 25, up by $70 million from the revised figure for the previous week, with the increase in flows more than sufficient to offset a small drop in Baltic and Black Sea prices.

Flows by Destination

Observed shipments to Russia’s Asian customers, including those showing no final destination, rose to 2.98 million barrels a day in the 28 days to Jan. 25, up from a revised 2.93 million in the period to Jan. 18.

While the amount of Russian crude heading to both China and India appears to be falling sharply, the amount on vessels yet to show a final destination has soared, allowing for much of that pattern to be reversed in time. Tankers are increasingly showing interim destinations, such as Suez or Port Sudan, until they are well across the Arabian Sea, while some never show a final calling point, even after mooring to discharge.

Vessels are also spending longer at sea, with several tankers diverting from initial destinations on the west coast of India or in Turkey. They are also getting held up waiting to discharge at Chinese and Indian ports. 

Flows on tankers signaling Chinese ports stood at 840,000 barrels a day in the four weeks to Jan. 25, down from 1 million barrels a day for the period to Jan. 18. The amount destined for India fell to just 330,000 barrels a day from 420,000 barrels a day in the earlier period. But there is the equivalent of 1.81 million barrels a day on vessels yet to show a final destination.

Of that, about 1.45 million barrels a day is on ships from Russia’s western ports showing their destination as Port Said or the Suez Canal, or those from Pacific ports with no clear delivery point, and a further 360,000 barrels a day is on tankers yet to signal any destination.

Flows to Turkey in the four weeks to Jan. 25 edged down to about 170,000 barrels a day from 200,000 barrels a day during the period to Jan. 18.

A second December-loading cargo of Russian crude arrived in Syria during the past week. Tankers hauling Russian crude to the east Mediterranean nation rarely signal their destination and usually disappear from automated tracking systems when they’re south of Crete, making it difficult to estimate flows in advance of ships arriving off the port of Baniyas, where they can usually be picked up on satellite photos.

To contact the author of this story:
Julian Lee in London at [email protected]

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