Russia Pushes ‘Shadow Fleet’ to Limit as LNG Carrier Struggles Through Early Arctic Ice on Northern Sea Route

A Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) carrier from the country’s so-called shadow fleet, the Buran, is battling thickening sea ice along the Northern Sea Route, underscoring the risks Moscow faces in keeping Arctic energy exports flowing as winter sets in. The vessel is part of a fleet of tankers operating outside Western insurance and tracking systems after sanctions restricted Russia’s energy exports.

The Buran departed from the Koryak FSU in Kamchatka after offloading its cargo on October 26. It reached the Northern Sea Route north of the Bering Strait on October 29 and for the past three days has been struggling to find a path through early winter sea ice. 

Satellite data and maritime tracking services show the Buran probing the ice edge in the Chukchi Sea repeatedly traveling north to south apparently searching for a path through the ice.

With a medium Arc4 ice-class the vessel is permitted to operate independently, i.e. without icebreaker escort, in light ice. For more severe ice conditions it requires an icebreaker escort. 

The Buran’s struggle highlights the limits of the shadow fleet outside of the summer navigation season as Russia leans heavily on the Northern Sea Route to sustain LNG shipments from its Arctic LNG 2 project. 

Buran’s sister ship Vokshod is approaching the same waters from a westerly direction following behind the nuclear icebreaker Sibir. At current speeds of 5 knots the convoy is several days away from reaching Buran on the other side of the sea ice in the East Siberian Sea.

In recent weeks Novatek’s flagship project successfully completed a dozen deliveries to China’s Beihai terminal. Though experts question what level of production the company can sustain during winter and spring when the Northern Sea Route is routinely blocked by thick sea ice.

“With the coming official start of the NSR winter season in two weeks, Eikland Energy maintains that steady ALNG2 deliveries to Beihai, at levels seen the last two months, will not be possible,” says Kjell Eikland, managing director of data provider Eikland Energy.

Novatek has already begun routing its non-ice-class vessels away from the Arctic via the Suez Canal. Arctic Metagaz is traveling northbound through the Red Sea; one of only a handful of LNG carriers to pass through Bab el-Mandeb Strait in months due to Houthi safety concerns.

Earlier this summer Arctic Metagaz got stuck for more than a week in the same Arctic waters as Buran, before it could follow behind a more ice-capable vessel.

“The next couple of weeks will show how risk-taking Novatek will be in exposing its Arc4-rated ALNG2 fleet to ice,” Kjell Eikland continued. “Eikland Energy believes Novatek will be conservative and protective of its fleet.”

Novatek currently has only one high ice-class Arc7 LNG carrier, Christophe de Margerie, at its disposal. Several more may be launched from Russia’s Zvezda shipyard though the timing is unknown after several years of delays. The initial vessel of the five-ship order, Aleksey Kosygin, recently began another round of sea trials. 

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