North Atlantic Tropics Becoming Active

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TS Erin formed late Wednesday over the eastern North Atlantic and was moving west-northwestward at about 13 knots with max winds of about 35 knots. Conditions are favorable during the next 48 to 72 hours for some slow development , however, after that drier air may tend to weaken this system. Time will tell if Erin survives the dry air or not.

Latest Forecast Track and Advisories

TS Erin 1145Z 15 Aug 2013 Visible Satellite image via NOAA
TS Erin 1145Z 15 Aug 2013 Visible Satellite image via NOAA

Farther to the west, another disturbance (Invest 92L) over the Northwest Caribbean was approaching the Yucatan Peninsula but much of the shower activity is already overland so development is not likely in the short term, but development may be possible once it moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico.

An update Thursday from the U.S. National Hurricane Center said that the area of low pressure still has a 50 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours

Invest 92L 1345Z 15 Aug 2013 NOAA Visual Satellite image
Invest 92L 1345Z 15 Aug 2013 NOAA Visual Satellite image