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The Nimitz-class aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman (CVN 75) arrives at the NATO Marathi Pier Complex in Souda Bay, Crete, Greece, during a scheduled port visit on Feb. 6, 2025. U.S. Navy Photo
Top Stories
Trump’s Reimposes ‘Maximum Pressure’ on Iran
President Donald Trump is back on the sanctions warpath, reviving his “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran this week.
While tanker stocks surged on expectations that increased scrutiny would tighten the market, Trump’s first round of sanctions since returning to the White House proved to be more of a light squeeze than a knockout punch. The Treasury Department blacklisted just three Iranian oil tankers—one VLCC and two Aframaxes—for shipping Iranian crude to China, falling short of the sweeping measures many had anticipated.
Still, Trump’s return to hardline policies echoes his first-term sanctions blitz, which triggered a wave of maritime confrontations. Since the U.S. withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) in 2018, Iranian forces have escalated tanker seizures and vessel harassment at an alarming rate. With Trump’s return to office and revival of maximum pressure tactics, analysts had warned of another potential round of brinkmanship.
Keep in mind, the oil trade landscape has transformed significantly since Trump’s first term. China now purchases almost all of Iran’s oil exports. Meanwhile, Tehran has also mastered sanctions evasion, employing some 500 shadow tankers in its oil trade—only about half of which have been blacklisted.
Though direct U.S. military intervention remains unlikely—barring occasional targeted assassination—analysts warn that “Maximum Pressure 2.0” could mean heightened risks for commercial vessels and crews. With the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden already on edge with Iranian-backed Houthi attacks, the threat of Iranian retaliation and vessel seizures is top of mind for maritime stakeholders in the region.
Maritime Security Incidents Involving Iran
May 2019: Four commercial vessels were damaged off the coast of Fujairah in the Gulf of Oman. An international investigation suggested that limpet mines were used, pointing towards a “state actor”.
June 2019: Two oil tankers, the Front Altair and the Kokuka Courageous, suffered explosions in the Gulf of Oman. The U.S. attributed these attacks to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), though Iran denied involvement.
April 2020: Eleven IRGCN vessels conducted harassing maneuvers toward U.S. Navy and Coast Guard ships in the North Arabian Gulf, coming as close as 10 yards to the U.S. Coast Guard cutter Maui.
January 2021: Iran’s IRGC seized the South Korean-flagged oil tanker Hankuk Chemi in the Strait of Hormuz, alleging environmental pollution violations.
April 2021: Three IRGCN fast-attack craft approached U.S. naval vessels in the north Persian Gulf, ignoring safety protocols under international law.
May 2021: A group of 13 IRGCN fast-attack boats approached six U.S. Navy vessels escorting the guided-missile submarine USS Georgia in the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. Coast Guard cutter Maui fired 30 warning shots to deter the Iranian boats.
July 2021: The Israeli-managed oil tanker MT Mercer Street was attacked off the coast of Oman. The U.S. attributed the attack to an Iranian drone strike, which resulted in the deaths of two crew members.
August 2021: The Asphalt Princess, a Panama-flagged tanker, was hijacked in the Gulf of Oman. Armed individuals attempted to redirect the vessel toward Iran.
April 2022: Greek authorities seized the Iranian-flagged tanker Lana near Evia, citing EU sanctions. In retaliation, Iran seized two Greek tankers, Delta Poseidon and Prudent Warrior, in the Persian Gulf, detaining their crews.
June 2022: Three Iranian fast-attack craft harassed the USS Sirocco and USNS Choctaw County as they transited the Strait of Hormuz, coming within 50 yards of the U.S. Navy ship before altering course.
April 2023: Following the U.S. seizure of the Suez Rajan, which was transporting Iranian oil, Iran captured two tankers near the Strait of Hormuz, including the Advantage Sweet, a Marshall Islands-flagged vessel carrying oil from Kuwait to Houston. July 2023: The U.S. Navy intervened to prevent Iran from seizing two merchant tankers in the Gulf of Oman. November 2023: Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels intensified attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea, using missiles, drones, and explosive-laden boats. These actions disrupted a critical global shipping route. January 2024: Iran’s navy seized the St Nikolas, a tanker formerly known as the Suez Rajan, in the Gulf of Oman. Iranian authorities stated that the action was in retaliation for the U.S. confiscation of Iranian oil. April 2024: Iran’s IRGC Navy seized the Portuguese-flagged container ship MSC Aries in the Gulf of Oman, citing maritime law violations.
Canal Confusion
The U.S.-Panama relationship just hit choppy waters, with a fresh standoff over tolls for U.S. government vessels transiting the Panama Canal. The drama kicked off after the U.S. State Department prematurely claimed that American military and government ships would now enjoy free passage, supposedly saving “millions of dollars a year.”
Panama’s response? A swift “not so fast” from the Panama Canal Authority (ACP), which publicly refuted the claim, insisting that no such policy change had been made. Panama’s President was quick to pile on, calling Washington’s statement “lies and falsehoods” and vowing to address the issue personally with President Trump.
Beyond tolls, the U.S. is turning up the heat on China’s influence over the canal. Trump has repeatedly accused Beijing of meddling and vowed the U.S. is “taking it back.”
Panama has since announced plans to exit China’s Belt and Road Initiative by 2026, but insists it wasn’t pressured by Washington. Meanwhile, Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison’s port operations in Panama are under increasing scrutiny, raising speculation that the company’s 50-year concession could be on the chopping block.
Meanwhile, the canal is still struggling to return to pre-drought traffic levels. According to BIMCO, total capacity remains 10% below 2019-2022 averages, with shippers—especially in LNG—still wary due to safety concerns and limited transit slots. While containerships and car carriers have bounced back, dry bulk trade faces uncertainty.
For now, the canal remains at the center of a high-stakes geopolitical showdown. With transit patterns evolving, diplomatic tensions rising, and economic uncertainties looming, global shipping could be in for some stormy seas ahead.
Trump’s Tariff Blitz
President Donald Trump plans to escalate his trade war next week by announcing new reciprocal tariffs on U.S. trading partners. Though specifics are not yet public, Trump signaled a broad initiative aimed at ensuring “fair” trade that could affect multiple countries. This action delivers on his long-standing campaign promise to match foreign tariffs on American exports with equal import duties.
Meanwhile, Canada and Mexico dodged fresh duties threatened by Trump—at least for the next 30 days—by accepting stricter border enforcement measures. China did not fare as well, with Trump implementing a broad 10% tariff on Chinese imports. In response, China retaliated with targeted tariffs and possible sanctions against U.S. companies, including Google. As Trump’s trade representative nominee signals plans to pressure Vietnam and other nations, this complex international trade dispute shows no signs of resolution.
Maersk Rides the Red Sea Wave to Profit Surge
Maersk is sailing into 2025 with confidence, forecasting 4% global container volume growth despite continued Red Sea disruptions and supply-demand uncertainties. The Danish shipping giant closed 2024 as its third most profitable year, with EBIT surging 65% to $6.5 billion, largely thanks to higher freight rates and volume demand.
CEO Vincent Clerc credited the company’s agility in rerouting vessels around the Cape of Good Hope while keeping operational costs stable. Maersk’s Ocean segment saw a major boost, with EBIT jumping from $2.2B in 2023 to $4.7B in 2024.
Looking ahead, Maersk projects 2025 EBITDA of $6.0-$9.0 billion, with Red Sea uncertainty a key variable. Meanwhile, the company’s new Gemini Cooperation with Hapag-Lloyd aims for 90% reliability—a strategic move shaking up global shipping alliances. Resilient supply chains remain the name of the game.
Gibraltar Collision Report
An official Gibraltar accident report has pinpointed navigational errors and the lack of pilotage as key factors behind the 2022 collision between the bulk carrier OS 35 and LNG carrier Adam LNG. The incident, which led to OS 35’s beaching, structural breakup, and an oil spill, has renewed scrutiny over pilot-free departures from Gibraltar’s Western Anchorage.
The report reveals that OS 35’s master misjudged drift conditions, executing an emergency maneuver that ironically caused the very collision he was trying to avoid. Investigators stress that a pilot on board could have prevented the accident, noting that piloted vessels haven’t had a serious collision in 15 years.
While Gibraltar’s Vessel Traffic Service (VTS) was praised for its post-collision response, its pre-collision monitoring fell short. The report’s recommendations include mandatory pilotage for departing vessels, better bridge team training, and enhanced VTS oversight to prevent future incidents.
As always, we’d love to hear your feedback. Email [email protected] with any questions, comments, tips, or concerns. Don’t forget to check out the Club Discord and gCaptain.com for the latest maritime news.
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