Dispatch 40 – Tariff Shot Across The Bow

Mike Schuler
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November 30, 2024

gCaptain Club

Dispatch No. 40


Hello Club Members! Here is your weekly Dispatch with all the maritime news you need to know to end your week.

Ship Photo of The Week

Aiviq in Tampa
‘Aiviq’ at Tampa Ship’s Graving Dock #4 on November 28, 2024. (Source: GCaptain via tabasco44)

Top Stories

Trump’s Tariff Threat Rocks Trade

President-elect Donald Trump isn’t waiting to make waves, announcing plans for hefty tariffs on some of the U.S.’ top trading partners: including 10% on Chinese goods and 25% on everything from Mexico and Canada—including crude oil. Trump framed the tariffs as a crackdown on drugs and migration, claiming they’d stay in place until those issues are resolved.

The threats revive concerns about escalating trade tensions that began during Trump’s first term and have continued, with President Biden actually expanding the original Trump-era tariffs on Chinese imports.

Though substantial, the tariffs represent a step back from his campaign promises of 60% tariffs on China and 20% global tariffs—suggesting to shippers that 2025 may bring heightened uncertainty and disruption.
Leaders from the three nations have expressed significant concerns and indicated potential retaliatory measures, with China threatening calculated “supply chain warfare” against critical U.S. industries.

The auto and energy sectors, deeply tied to North American trade, brace for impact as analysts wonder if this is just an opening shot or a precursor to Trump’s earlier promises of even higher tariffs. For now, supply chain stakeholders are watching–and waiting—for what comes next.

Autopilot Error Sends Manawanui to Watery Grave

A critical autopilot oversight doomed the Royal New Zealand Navy’s HMNZS Manawanui, which ran aground off Samoa on October 5, 2024. Strong winds and human error combined in a 12-minute spiral of confusion, with the crew mistakenly blaming thruster failure while the autopilot remained engaged. The vessel grounded multiple times before control was regained—too late to avert disaster.

Captain Yvonne Gray’s swift abandon-ship order is credited with saving all 75 crew members, though the ship ultimately succumbed to fires and sank. The interim Court of Inquiry report has sparked fleet-wide training updates, with the Navy pledging to rebuild public trust. A full report is expected in early 2025.

UK Anchors Russia’s Shadow Fleet

The UK has tightened the screws on Russia’s shadow fleet, sanctioning 30 more vessels responsible for transporting billions in oil revenues that fuel the Kremlin’s war machine. This brings the UK’s sanctioned Russian tankers total to 73, leading the global charge against these substandard and often deceptive ships. Foreign Secretary David Lammy called the fleet a “fire fueling Russia’s aggression,” as these sanctions strike a blow to Moscow’s war chest while addressing the environmental and security risks posed by these ships. The sanctions come as 46 nations rally behind a UK-led coalition targeting unsafe practices at sea. With the shadow fleet’s dubious insurers also blacklisted, the message is clear: unsafe, deceptive shipping practices will no longer sail unchallenged.

Sabotage Sparks NATO Article 5 Debate

Russia’s escalating hybrid warfare—spanning cyberattacks, arson, and suspected undersea cable sabotage—has NATO weighing a potential Article 5 response, Germany’s intelligence chief Bruno Kahl warned this week. Speaking in Berlin, Kahl noted that Moscow’s tactics could shift from covert disruptions to outright military provocations as its forces grow battle-hardened and adept in drone warfare.

Recent Baltic Sea incidents, including severed telecom cables, have heightened tensions, with Sweden, Finland, and NATO investigating possible sabotage. While no direct blame has been assigned, the backdrop of Russia’s aggression in Ukraine underscores growing concerns over European security vulnerabilities.

Kahl cautioned that Russia might test NATO’s unity with smaller, targeted actions rather than full-scale invasions, aiming to undermine Western solidarity. As hybrid threats multiply, NATO’s resolve—and Article 5—may soon face a critical test.

Coast Guard Taps Aiviq for Arctic Icebreaking Duty

The U.S. Coast Guard has completed a $125 million deal to acquire and convert the Aiviq, a commercial icebreaker, as a stopgap measure for Arctic operations. The 360-foot ship, currently undergoing a red-to-blue hull makeover at Tampa Ship LLC, will fill the gap until the Polar Security Cutter icebreaker is ready later this decade.

Commandant Linda Fagan confirmed the acquisition at the Halifax International Security Forum, highlighting Aiviq’s potential to handle select missions with minimal modifications. The vessel, recently ferried from Mississippi to Florida, is set for an 18-month conversion, including operational testing and ABS certification. Once completed, Aiviq will be homeported in Juneau, projecting U.S. presence in the Arctic.


Weekend Reading

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