Massive Surge in Transpacific Blank Sailings Amid U.S.-China Trade Tensions

Container shipping lines have dramatically increased blank sailings on Transpacific routes in response to escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China, according to a new report from Sea-Intelligence.

The total blanked capacity for weeks 16-19 has surged to 367,800 TEU, representing a significant increase from just 60,000 TEU three weeks prior. The Asia-North America West Coast trade lane has seen scheduled capacity drop by 12% compared to six weeks ago, while the Asia-North America East Coast route experienced an even steeper decline of 14%.

The situation has been complicated by the U.S. increasing tariffs on Chinese goods to 145%, with China retaliating through 125% tariffs on U.S. imports and restrictions on critical mineral exports.

“The current political climate is extremely volatile and given that tariffs are being imposed and suspended on an almost daily basis, we assume that both the shipping lines and cargo owners are only adjusting their short-term supply chains for now and waiting for things to settle down before making longer-term network adjustments,” said Alan Murphy, CEO of Sea-Intelligence.

Industry analysts at Drewry report that blank sailings are expected to continue rising in the coming weeks, particularly in the Transpacific eastbound trade. Some vessels may depart China with significant empty space through May as cargo owners cancel shipments or halt cargo at origin to offset rising costs, according to Drewry.

“Frequency of sailings is expected to improve over the next five weeks, with our forecast indicating approximatively 90% of weekly departures will happen as scheduled. Among the major payers, Gemini is expected to reach a perfect sailing schedule adherence. However, this is likely to change if carriers introduce more blank sailings to reduce overcapacity in an attempt to boost rates and adapt to lowering demand, particularly from China to USA,” Drewry states.

Current spot rates reflect the market turbulence, with Drewry’s WCI Composite Index dropping 3% week-over-week to $2,192 per 40ft container as of April 17.

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