Maritime’s Green Transition Reaches Tipping Point as Fleet Readiness Outpaces Fuel Supply

The maritime industry is entering a critical new phase in its energy transition, with fleet readiness for alternative fuels surging ahead of actual supply infrastructure, according to DNV’s latest Maritime Forecast to 2050 report released today.

The report reveals that by 2030, the alternative-fuelled fleet will have capacity to consume up to 50 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) of low-greenhouse gas fuels annually – double the volume needed to meet the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) 2030 emissions target. However, actual consumption of these fuels currently stands at just 1 Mtoe, highlighting a significant gap between fleet capabilities and fuel availability.

“The stage is set for the next phase of the maritime energy transition,” said Knut Ørbeck-Nilssen, CEO of DNV Maritime. “The IMO’s Net-Zero Framework has imperfections and greater clarity is urgently needed around how the collected money will be spent. It is already influencing investment decisions, operational choices and fuel strategies across the industry.”

The ninth edition of DNV’s report comes at a pivotal moment for the industry, with the IMO’s Net-Zero Framework (NZF) approved but pending final adoption in October. This regulatory development, combined with the rapid growth of alternative-fuel-capable vessels – set to almost double by 2028 – signals a shift from preparation to action among shipowners.

DNV’s analysis outlines several potential solutions to bridge the gap between vessel readiness and fuel availability, such as leveraging existing infrastructure for biofuels, implementing energy-efficiency measures on newbuilds, developing onboard carbon capture technology, and expanding the use of wind-assisted propulsion systems.

Onboard carbon capture (OCC) also shows particular promise according to the report’s modeling, which suggests that equipping just 20 major ports with CO2 offloading infrastructure could enable the removal of up to 75 million tonnes of captured CO2 annually. This could potentially offset the need for 25 Mtoe of low-GHG fuels – approximately the amount needed to reach the IMO’s 2030 base target.

“The industry has made real technical progress in recent years,” noted Eirik Ovrum, Lead Author of the report. “But these solutions are still operating in silos. To deliver impact, they need to be integrated into fleet strategies, supported by infrastructure, and recognized in compliance frameworks. That’s where the next phase of work must focus.”

The DNV report’s findings align with a separate industry assessment from Columbia Group, which predicts that dual-fuel ships will define the next decade of shipping due to the absence of readily available zero-carbon alternatives. According to Columbia Group, dual-fuel vessels, particularly those powered by LNG, are emerging as a practical bridge technology in response to tightening regulations.

“Owners and operators face increasing legislation, and LNG in particular has emerged as a bridging technology that allows compliance with today’s standards while providing confidence for the next decade,” said Duncan McLennan, Group Director, Technical at Columbia Shipmanagement.

As the industry approaches the end of 2025, dual-fuel ships have accounted for approximately half of global new-build orders, with LNG propulsion powering nearly 70% of those vessels. While these ships offer flexibility and regulatory compliance, Columbia Group emphasizes they also introduce new operational complexities.

According to DNV’s Alternative Fuels Insights (AFI) platform, as of August 2025, there are 1,794 alternative-fuel-capable vessels in operation, with another 1,544 on order.

“Balancing LNG with conventional fuels, such as VLSFO, requires careful planning and operational oversight,” McLennan added. “It is not just about building these ships, but about ensuring they are run safely, efficiently, and in full compliance.”

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