Maersk Raises Guidance Again Amid Red Sea Disruptions

Maersk has raised its financial guidance for the third time in as many months due to ongoing Houthi attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, which are forcing ships to take longer routes around the Cape of Good Hope.

On Thursday, A.P. Møller – Mærsk A/S (APMM) reported preliminary unaudited figures for Q2 2024, including revenue of USD 12.8 billion, underlying EBITDA of USD 2.1 billion, and underlying EBIT of USD 756 million (reported EBIT of USD 963 million).

Given the continued supply chain disruptions in the Red Sea, which Maersk now expects to continue at least until the end of 2024, coupled with robust container market demand, APMM has now upgraded its full-year 2024 guidance.

The company now anticipates underlying EBITDA of USD 9 to 11 billion and EBIT of USD 3 to 5 billion, up from June’s estimates of USD 7 to 9 billion and USD 1 to 3 billion, respectively. Free cash flow is projected to be at least USD 2 billion, an increase from the previous forecast of at least USD 1 billion.

The global container market volume growth outlook for full-year 2024 has also been revised up to 4-6%, from the previous estimate towards the upper end of 2.5-4.5%.

“Trading conditions remain subject to higher than normal volatility given the unpredictability of the Red Sea situation and the lack of clarity of supply and demand in Q4,” the company stated.

Today’s upgrade is the latest major update to its guidance, following a significant increase in early June and raising of the lower end of its guidance in May.

In February, Maersk had forecasted underlying EBITDA for 2024 to be between USD 1 to 6 billion, compared to the USD 9.6 billion achieved in 2023, due to anticipated overcapacity in the container shipping market and the belief that Red Sea disruptions would not significantly affect freight rates.

APMM will publish its full Q2 interim results on 7 August 2024.

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