Trump China Tariffs Set to Unleash Supply Shock on U.S. Economy
President Donald Trump’s tariff onslaught has roiled Washington and Wall Street for nearly a month. If the trade war persists, the next upheaval will hit much closer to home.
Global supply chain pressures continued to decline in June but is still at historically high levels, according to the New York Fed’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI).
The GSCPI, first introduced in January, is published monthly and uses a range of transportation cost data and manufacturing indicators to provide a gauge of global supply chain conditions.
June’s reading was 2.41, representing the standard deviation from the historical average dating back to 1997, down from 2.58 in May and all-time peak of 4.35 in December 2021.

The New York Fed said the June decline was mostly due to a large decrease in Chinese supply delivery times.
“The moves in the GSCPI over the past three months suggest that although global supply chain pressures have been decreasing, they remain at historically high levels,” it said.
With peak summer shipping season now upon us, it will be interesting to see what happens with the GSCPI in the coming months.
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