Despite the Houthis’ recent pledge to halt attacks on non-Israeli commercial vessels following the Israel-Hamas ceasefire agreement of January 19th, shipping industry analysts at Drewry warn against expecting an immediate return to Suez Canal transits.
The maritime sector faces a complex web of challenges, with the fragile nature of the Gaza ceasefire deal and the Houthis’ history of unpredictable behavior causing significant concern.
Since November 2023, the Houthis’ campaign has resulted in over 100 vessel attacks, two ships sunk, four seafarers killed, and the ongoing hostage situation of 25 crew members from the car carrier Galaxy Leader.
“This is clearly a positive development, but we should not expect to see container lines rush to return to the Suez Canal,” states Drewry in their latest analysis. The research firm estimates that carriers will likely take months rather than weeks to resume normal Suez operations, requiring absolute certainty that the threat has been eliminated.
Interestingly, the Red Sea crisis has actually benefited carriers financially. The necessary re-routing has absorbed approximately 9% of effective capacity, contributing to strong quarterly profits. However, a return to Suez operations would force carriers to confront the market’s underlying overcapacity issues.
Adding to the maritime industry’s uncertainty is the return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency. Trump is expected to issue hundreds of executive orders in his first week, including potentially significant changes to trade tariffs.
The maritime industry now faces a critical period of uncertainty. As Drewry notes, “The next few weeks and months will go a long way to deciding how volatile 2025 will be.”
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