Drewry Maritime Research’s latest Annual World Shipbuilding Market Review and Forecast highlights the bleak prospects that are facing the world’s shipbuilders as a result of the slump that has hit shipping markets.
London – Shipbuilding production levels have remained at record high levels exceeding 50 million cgt for two consecutive years (2010 -2011), with 2012 forecasted to remain close to 2011 levels. However the orderbook that forms the contracted forward workload has diminished rapidly and tails-off to very low levels for 2014 and beyond.
Over-tonnaging and large operating inefficiencies mask the true levels of fleet under-utilisation and are hindering a recovery. With the orderbook dominated by bulk carriers and containerships, two of the worst hit markets in terms of over supply wreaking havoc with rates, it reflects the fact that for some time now ordering activity by shipowners has exceed the requirements of trade growth.
To give a clear insight into the prospects for the shipbuilding industry Drewry’s Annual World Shipbuilding Market Review and Forecast report presents three scenarios covering the projected newbuilding requirement by sector and ship type over a fifteen year period, reflecting the uncertainty that surrounds the industry.
Only under the High Case scenario is there a requirement for further new ordering beyond the size of orderbook at the start of 2012. Whereas under the more realistic Base Case in virtually all fleet sectors the size of the orderbook at the start of 2012 more than exceeded the newbuilding requirement to 2016.
The immediate prospects for the shipbuilding industry are therefore bleak. Furthermore access to funding – either through retained reserves or debt is very limited for shipowners and in the circumstances it seems almost inevitable that new ordering levels will remain low for some time to come.
Simply the difference between forecast demand and capacity is too great to be bridged by contraction from isolated capacity closure, meaning shipyards will have to fight for survival by securing enough of the limited new ordering that is likely to take place in the next couple of years.
Mississippi-based VT Halter Marine is in the process of getting its Pascagoula yard ready for the construction of the Coast Guard’s next-generation icebreaker, the Polar Security Cutter. The yard is...
January 7, 2021
Total Views: 3656
Sign Up Now for gCaptain Daily
Just enter your email and get hot news every morning
Necessary cookies are absolutely essential for the website to function properly. This category only includes cookies that ensures basic functionalities and security features of the website. These cookies do not store any personal information.
Any cookies that may not be particularly necessary for the website to function and is used specifically to collect user personal data via analytics, ads, other embedded contents are termed as non-necessary cookies. It is mandatory to procure user consent prior to running these cookies on your website.