Container Shipping Profits Plummet to $4.4 Billion in Q2 as US Tariffs Threaten Further Declines

The container shipping industry posted a net income of $4.4 billion for the second quarter of 2025, marking a significant 56% sequential decline from the $9.9 billion earned in Q1, according to maritime financial analyst John McCown. The figure also represents a steep 63.7% year-over-year drop from the $12 billion profit recorded in Q2 2024.

This marks the third consecutive quarter of declining profits for the sector, following a period of extraordinary earnings growth sparked by the Red Sea crisis. McCown notes that his earlier prediction of $5 billion in Q2 earnings proved “too optimistic” as the industry faces mounting headwinds.

“The container shipping industry is moving into a headwind driven by tariff and related trade initiatives of the US,” McCown writes, explaining that these measures are already reducing container volumes into and out of American ports. With US lanes representing approximately one-third of worldwide container miles, these disruptions are creating ripple effects throughout the global shipping network.

US inbound container volume has been trending downward since the beginning of the year, dropping 3.6% for the three months ending July. The National Retail Federation projects an even more dramatic decline, estimating that total US inbound container volume for 2025 will fall 5.6% compared to 2024. McCown calculates this projection means “volume for the five months remaining in 2025 to be down 17.5%” — a decline he attributes entirely to tariffs.

The report also highlights how the industry has benefited significantly from past disruptions. The pandemic generated approximately $400 billion in sector earnings, while the Red Sea crisis contributed about $50 billion. These experiences have given carriers “a much greater appreciation” of how to adjust capacity to maintain profitability during market shifts.

McCown anticipates further earnings deterioration in the third quarter, projecting Q3 profits between $1.9 billion and $2.5 billion — a fraction of the $26.4 billion recorded in Q3 2024 during the peak of the Red Sea crisis.

Beyond tariffs, the industry also faces challenges from the USTR ship fee plan, which imposes significant fees on vessels built in China or operated by Chinese carriers starting in October. McCown warns this could lead to capacity withdrawals or higher rates, particularly affecting the critical Asia to West Coast shipping lane where COSCO holds the highest market share.

Despite these challenges, container lines continue ordering new vessels at a strong pace. McCown suggests this confidence stems from “increased discipline on the part of the industry in controlling capacity,” though he acknowledges most orders were placed before the full impact of tariffs and new fees became apparent.

Looking ahead, McCown concludes that “the next year or so is certain to be among the most eventful periods ever for the container shipping industry,” with developments providing early indicators for both US and global economic trends.

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