The container shipping market is still benefiting from geopolitical disruption and longer sailing distances in 2026, but a rapidly expanding fleet could turn that support into a supply problem next year, according to BIMCO.
In its September Container Shipping Market Overview & Outlook, BIMCO said ship supply is expected to grow faster than demand in 2027 under both of its scenarios for the Strait of Hormuz, setting the stage for a weaker market as a large newbuilding pipeline hits the water.
“Disruptions and strong growth in head-haul trades continue to support the container shipping market in 2026, but accelerating fleet growth could weaken the supply/demand balance in 2027,” said Niels Rasmussen, BIMCO’s chief shipping analyst.
The warning comes as the global containership fleet crosses the 34 million TEU mark following a 10 million TEU increase in just five and a half years. BIMCO now expects fleet capacity to grow 4.6% in 2026 and another 9% in 2027.
The orderbook is even more striking. More than 14 million TEU of capacity is now on order, equivalent to about 42% of the existing fleet, while ship recycling is expected to remain limited.
For now, the market is absorbing much of that capacity.
Global container volumes increased 5.1% year-over-year during the first seven months of 2026, with strong growth outside the Persian Gulf more than offsetting declines in trades to and from South and West Asia. Exports from East and Southeast Asia accounted for more than half of the year-to-date increase.
The mix of that growth has also been favorable for ship demand. Head-haul and regional volumes rose 6.3%, while back-haul volumes were flat, meaning vessel demand has grown faster than overall container volumes.
At the same time, Cape of Good Hope diversions continue to absorb capacity by extending voyage distances, while disruption in the Persian Gulf has left some ships unavailable to the wider market.
BIMCO is modeling two scenarios for 2027. Its “SoH Closed” case assumes the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed through next year, while the “SoH Open” scenario assumes normal transit conditions return.
Under both, BIMCO expects ship supply growth of roughly 5% to 6% in 2027. Demand growth is forecast at just 0.5% to 2.5% if Hormuz remains closed and 2.5% to 4.5% if normal traffic resumes.
The difference reflects the wider economic effects of the Gulf disruption. Higher energy prices and constrained oil supplies could weigh on global growth if normal shipping through Hormuz does not return.
“Unless Strait of Hormuz transit conditions normalise, continued oil supply constraints and higher oil prices could weaken global economic growth and container volume growth in 2027,” Rasmussen said.
But a reopening of Hormuz would not eliminate the container sector’s capacity problem.
One of the biggest variables is the Suez Canal, where several major container lines have already begun shifting services back from the Cape of Good Hope. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd recently expanded their return to Suez across four additional Gemini services, while COSCO SHIPPING Lines has also resumed passages with large containerships, including the 24,188-TEU OOCL Portugal. The vessel transited Suez last week in another sign of the gradual return.
That creates another potential source of effective supply. Shortening voyages through Suez means the same fleet can move more cargo with fewer ships.
BIMCO estimates that a gradual normalization of Suez routings during 2027 could cut ship demand growth by around five percentage points compared with its current forecast. Once routings are fully normalized, ship demand could be about 10% lower than if Cape of Good Hope diversions remain the preferred route.
That leaves container shipping facing an unusual combination: a historically large orderbook arriving just as some of the disruptions that have helped absorb those ships could begin to unwind.
“While the supply/demand balance has strengthened during 2026, we expect that increased supply growth will drive a weakening of the markets during 2027, especially if a return to Suez Canal routings weakens ship demand,” Rasmussen said.
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