Hurricane Matthew approaching Haiti on Oct. 4, 2016, before heading towards Florida’s eastern coast. Credits: NASA/NOAA GOES Project
By Fred Pickhardt (Ocean Weather Services) – Given the unusual occurrence of 3 named tropical cyclones prior to the end of June, one might ask what should we expect for the remainder of the 2017 hurricane season?
A number of forecast centers have already made their predictions for the 2017 hurricane season with most sources predicting either a normal to somewhat above normal season. There is, however, quite a range in the total number of expected named storms, ranging from as low as 10 to as much as 17. The most likely number being 12-13 storms. For hurricanes, the range is from 6-10 with the most likely number being about 6 hurricanes. For major hurricanes, estimates range between 1 and 4, the most likely number being 2 or 3.
One factor most forecasters are looking at is that there will be either a weak El Nino or as neutral ENSO conditions will prevail during the peak of this year’s season as well as warmer than normal SST across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean Sea. If we have a weak El Niño, then the likelihood is for a normal to somewhat below normal season. If, however, as predicted by NOAA, the current neutral ENSO conditions prevail, then a somewhat more active season is possible.
For this up-coming season, I have been looking at the SST Anomalies over the North Atlantic which have been showing a trend for cooler than normal temperatures north of about 40N latitude while mostly warmer than normal SST prevail to the south. If this continues, there should be a tendency for high pressure areas that move off New England or Canada to be enhanced which will tend to block or delay tropical cyclones from turning northeastward. This, in turn, would suggest a higher risk for storms moving northward over the western North Atlantic to threaten the US East Coast.
CAIRO, March 2 (Reuters) – The Houthi Transport Ministry in Yemen said on Saturday there had been a “glitch” in undersea communication cables in the Red Sea as a result of actions...
by Captain John Konrad (gCaptain) In the current American labor landscape, the stark contrast between the assertive strides of transportation unions and the maritime sector’s unique labor challenges is striking....
By Mikhail Flores MANILA, Dec 2 (Reuters) – Evacuations were under way in the Philippines after a quake of at least magnitude 7.5 struck the southern region of Mindanao on Saturday night,...
December 2, 2023
Total Views: 2161
Why Join the gCaptain Club?
Access exclusive insights, engage in vibrant discussions, and gain perspectives from our CEO.
This website uses cookies to improve your experience while you navigate through the website. Out of these, the cookies that are categorized as necessary are stored on your browser as they are essential for the working of basic functionalities of the website. We also use third-party cookies that help us analyze and understand how you use this website. These cookies will be stored in your browser only with your consent. You also have the option to opt-out of these cookies. But opting out of some of these cookies may affect your browsing experience.
Necessary cookies are absolutely essential for the website to function properly. This category only includes cookies that ensures basic functionalities and security features of the website. These cookies do not store any personal information.
Any cookies that may not be particularly necessary for the website to function and is used specifically to collect user personal data via analytics, ads, other embedded contents are termed as non-necessary cookies. It is mandatory to procure user consent prior to running these cookies on your website.