U.S.-Facilitated Hormuz Transits Help Lift Gulf Crude Exports Above 10 Million Bpd

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is still running far below normal, but the latest UKMTO data shows a steady flow of ships continuing to move through the waterway, much of it with U.S.-facilitated passage, helping to restore some Gulf oil exports.

UKMTO said vessel traffic through the Strait remains “significantly below” pre-conflict levels despite a brief recovery in late June. Its latest data shows overall movements are running at roughly 20% of the pre-conflict norm, underscoring how far shipping activity remains from normal.

UKMTO recorded 108 outbound and 102 inbound transits over the latest seven-day period, combining AIS-derived movements with U.S.-reported facilitated transits. 

The numbers also show just how dependent current traffic has become on facilitated passage. UKMTO said U.S.-stated facilitated transits on the southern route averaged about 20 vessels per day over the past week, compared with just six AIS-derived transits per day — a roughly 3-to-1 ratio. The agency said the disparity suggests a significant share of traffic continues to rely on facilitated passage. 

The latest seven-day breakdown further highlights that dependence. UKMTO counted only 22 AIS-derived outbound transits and 23 inbound, compared with 86 U.S.-stated facilitated outbound passages and 79 inbound.

Vessels transmitting AIS have predominantly been using the northern route through Iranian territorial waters, while the U.S.-facilitated traffic has largely moved along the southern route. UKMTO also said it is aware of UAE-facilitated vessels making the passage with AIS switched off, although it has no way to independently verify those movements.

That continued flow appears to be helping Gulf oil exports recover. TankerTrackers.com said combined crude exports from Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Oman have averaged more than 10 million barrels per day over the past seven complete UTC days, including shipments from the Gulf of Oman that do not need to transit the Strait of Hormuz.

It is the first time in about two months that combined exports from producers behind the U.S. blockade line, which includes have climbed above that level, following the effective breakdown of the Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding and the resumption of the U.S. blockade.

Iran remains the clear exception. According to TankerTrackers, Iranian crude exports continue to sit at zero, even as neighboring producers move growing volumes through the region.

The latest figures point to a widening split in Gulf oil flows: non-Iranian producers are increasingly finding ways to move crude through the Strait despite the conflict, while Iranian exports remain effectively shut out.

Conditions for shipping remain dangerous. UKMTO said the southern Omani route remains the highest-risk corridor, accounting for 19 of 32 projectile strike incidents reported since July 6. JMIC continues to assess the threat level in the Strait of Hormuz as SEVERE.

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