Trump Administration Says Gulf Oil Flows Recover to 15 Million Barrels a Day

U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said oil flows out of the Persian Gulf have climbed to roughly 15 million barrels per day as U.S. military operations and expanded pipeline capacity help restore exports disrupted by the war with Iran.

Wright said Tuesday that the seven-day average for oil leaving through the Strait of Hormuz has risen to nearly 9 million barrels per day, while another 5 million to 7 million barrels per day is moving through pipelines and export facilities that bypass the strategic waterway.

“Thanks to the coordinated efforts of the U.S. military and our gulf allies, the seven-day average for oil leaving the Strait of Hormuz is currently up to almost 9 million barrels per day,” Wright said.

“When combined with the additional 5-7 million barrels per day leaving the region via newly upgraded pipelines and export facilities, total oil flows are currently averaging approximately 15 million barrels per day.”

Wright added that more than 20 million barrels left the Arabian Gulf region on Sunday alone, which he said was above the pre-conflict average.

Thanks to the coordinated efforts of the U.S. military and our gulf allies, the seven-day average for oil leaving the Strait of Hormuz is currently up to almost 9 million barrels per day.

When combined with the additional 5-7 million barrels per day leaving the region via newly…

— Secretary Chris Wright (@SecretaryWright) August 11, 2026

The figures suggest Gulf producers have restored a substantial share of oil exports, but Wright’s wording leaves questions about how much traffic has actually returned to the U.S.-supported Omani route.

Wright said nearly 9 million barrels per day is leaving Hormuz in total, rather than through the Omani route specifically, versus the Iranian side of the Strait.

Wright’s claim that another 5 million to 7 million barrels per day is moving through “newly upgraded pipelines and export facilities” is also notable. Before the war, the International Energy Agency estimated Saudi Arabia and the UAE had just 3.5 million to 5.5 million barrels per day of available capacity to bypass Hormuz, while warning that moving large additional volumes had not been fully tested.

Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline provides most of that capacity, while the UAE can route crude directly to Fujairah. Wright’s figures suggest those alternative routes are now operating near or potentially above the upper end of the IEA’s pre-war estimates.

Even so, overall flows remain below normal on a sustained basis. The IEA estimated 19.87 million barrels per day of oil moved through Hormuz in 2025. Wright’s current estimate of roughly 15 million barrels per day through Hormuz and alternative routes therefore remains about 5 million barrels per day below that benchmark, despite his claim that exports topped 20 million barrels on Sunday alone.

Meanwhile, overall commercial shipping through the Strait remains heavily suppressed. The Joint Maritime Information Center said Tuesday that Hormuz traffic remains at “reduced levels,” with independent tracking showing only single-digit numbers of tankers moving in either direction. 

JMIC puts the Strait’s historical average at roughly 138 vessel transits per day, based on 2025 traffic. By comparison, it recorded 42 U.S.-facilitated transits over August 9-10, while separate tracking of non-facilitated cargo vessels showed just two transits on August 9 and three on August 10. 

Tanker traffic was even thinner in the non-U.S.-facilitated data, with just one tanker transit on each of August 9 and 10. JMIC expects traffic to remain reduced through both the northern Iranian-controlled route and southern Omani corridor amid vessel attacks, U.S. blockade enforcement and heightened regional tensions. 

The broader picture is that significant volumes of Gulf oil are again reaching global markets, but it remains unclear how much of the recovery is coming from restored traffic through the Omani route, continued use of the Iranian route, or expanded pipeline capacity.

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