Shipping Regulator Falls Short of 1.5C-Aligned Climate Targets

By Jack Wittels (Bloomberg) —

Shipping’s international regulator set non-binding emissions goals that fail to align with restricting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, according to industry experts.

The International Maritime Organization adopted a net zero target for 2050, with interim “checkpoints” by 2030 and 2040. If followed, the new strategy would not cut shipping emissions quickly enough to align the industry’s pollution with the Paris Agreement’s stretch goal to limit global warming to 1.5C, the experts said. 

“This agreement is not aligned with international shipping doing its part to limit global warming to 1.5C,” said Bryan Comer, marine program lead at the International Council on Clean Transportation, a not-for-profit.

IMO’s Revised GHG Strategy for Shipping: Details and Reactions

Shipping carries more than 80% of world trade and spews more CO2 into the atmosphere each year than Germany. The new goals are a major improvement on the IMO’s previous 2050 target of only a 50% cut in greenhouse gas emissions versus 2008.

The IMO talks, which conclude later today, took place during a week that saw the global temperature break records multiple times.

“While the 2023 IMO GHG strategy falls short of being clearly aligned to a 1.5 degree pathway, it does set expectations for reductions by 2030 and 2040,” said Alison Shaw, a research fellow at University College London Energy Institute and policy lead at consultancy University Maritime Advisory Services.

The Paris Agreement, inked in 2015, commits to holding increases in the global average temperature to “well below” 2C, while pursuing efforts to keep it to 1.5C.  

Under the IMO’s new plan, international shipping will exceed its current share of the world’s 1.5C carbon budget by approximately 2032, according to estimates from the ICCT. However, it will not exceed the “well below” 2C carbon budget, if that’s interpreted as 1.7C, the ICCT said.

“A stronger alignment with the Paris agreement, where shipping takes its pro-rated share, would require a more progressive reduction of emissions, reaching a 45% reduction in 2030,” said Bo Cerup-Simonsen, CEO of the Maersk Mc-Kinney Moller Center for Zero Carbon Shipping, a not-for-profit. “Still, we believe this strategy is a big step in the right direction.”

© 2023 Bloomberg L.P.

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