By Alex Longley
Oct 3, 2025 (Bloomberg) –The amount of oil on tankers plowing the world’s oceans climbed to the highest in more than two years, the latest indication of swelling global volumes ahead of a likely period of oversupply.
About 1.25 billion barrels of oil are currently at sea, according to Vortexa data, the highest since April 2023. Another analytics firm, Kpler, sees the same measure at the highest since June 2023, while a third, OilX, sees it at the highest since May last year.
The growth reflects rising shipments both from within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and outside the producer group. Cargoes are set to continue expanding through the fourth quarter and into the first quarter of 2026, spurring what the International Energy Agency expects to be record oversupply next year.
The increase is likely to weigh on crude prices, but should prove lucrative for ship owners. Earnings for giant supertankers approached $100,000 a day in recent weeks, but have since eased back.
“Big increases in Middle East crude exports in September are the biggest contributing factor here,” said Svetlana Lobaciova, principal analyst at EA Gibson Shipbrokers. “It is not just the cumulative impact of OPEC+ production increases, but also a likely significant decline in direct crude oil burn and sizable refinery crude processing capacity scheduled for maintenance in the Middle East in October.”
Higher volumes of oil sailing from the US and West Africa to Asia have also supported longer tanker journeys and boosted the amount of oil at sea, she added.
Seaborne oil shipments soared in September as the world’s three biggest exporters, the US, Saudi Arabia and Russia all poured more barrels onto the global market.
The increase, further fueled by other nations, meant that shipments jumped by more than 2 million barrels a day compared with a month earlier. In another indication of rising supply, futures markets have also softened in recent days.
“We are seeing global crude exports at the highest in over five years,” Kpler analyst Matt Smith said. “Ultimately this will likely result in higher inventories in the months ahead.”
© 2025 Bloomberg L.P.
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