Image of Hurricane Milton from NOAA's GOES-16 satellite on Oct. 8, 2024. (Image credit: NOAA)
NOAA’s latest outlook predicts an above-normal 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, with a 60% chance of exceeding typical storm activity between June 1 and November 30.
Forecasters anticipate 13 to 19 named storms, including 6-10 hurricanes, with 3-5 potentially reaching major hurricane status of Category 3 or higher. NOAA maintains a 70% confidence level in these predictions.
Several environmental factors contribute to this forecast, including ENSO-neutral conditions, above-average ocean temperatures, and weak wind shear. The Atlantic Basin continues to experience elevated heat content and reduced trade winds, creating favorable conditions for storm development.
“NOAA and the National Weather Service are using the most advanced weather models and cutting-edge hurricane tracking systems to provide Americans with real-time storm forecasts and warnings,” said Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick.
The forecast comes with significant technological improvements, including an upgraded Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System expected to improve tracking and intensity forecasts by 5%. Additionally, NOAA’s National Hurricane Center will now issue tropical cyclone advisories up to 72 hours before potential impacts.
The agency’s emphasis on enhanced forecasting follows a destructive 2024 season, during which Hurricane Helene caused devastating flooding in North Carolina with over 30 inches of rainfall.
“NOAA is critical for the delivery of early and accurate forecasts and warnings, and provides the scientific expertise needed to save lives and property,” said Acting NOAA Administrator Laura Grimm.
The alphabetical list of 2025 Atlantic hurricane names as chosen by the World Meteorological Organization.
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