NOAA GOES-East satellite image of Hurricane Elsa as it moves up Florida’s west coast on July 6, 2021. Image credit: NOAA
With five named storms on the books already this year, forecasters are continuing to call for an above-average Atlantic hurricane season as conditions remain ripe for storm development.
“After a record-setting start, the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season does not show any signs of relenting as it enters the peak months ahead,” said Rick Spinrad, Ph.D., NOAA administrator, in releasing the agencies annual mid-season update. “NOAA will continue to provide the science and services that are foundational to keeping communities prepared for any threatening storm.”
The latest outlook reflects that the number of expected named storms (winds of 39 mph or greater) is 15-21, including 7-10 hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or greater), of which 3-5 could become major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, or 5 with winds 111 mph or greater). The updated outlook includes the 5 named storms that have formed so far, with Hurricane Elsa becoming the earliest 5th named storm on record.
NOAA scientists predict that the likelihood of an above-normal 2021 Atlantic hurricane season is 65%. There is a 25% chance of a near-normal season and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.
“A mix of competing oceanic and atmospheric conditions generally favor above-average activity for the remainder of the Atlantic hurricane season, including the potential return of La Nina in the months ahead,” said Matthew Rosencrans, lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center.
Atlantic sea surface temperatures are not expected to be as warm as they were during last year’s record-breaking season, however, reduced vertical wind shear and an enhanced west Africa monsoon all contribute to the current conditions that can increase seasonal hurricane activity, says NOAA. These conditions are set against the backdrop of the ongoing warm phase of the Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation, which has been favoring more active hurricane seasons since 1995.
NOAA’s update to the 2021 outlook covers the entire six-month hurricane season, which ends November 30, 2021.
Join the gCaptain Club for curated content, insider opinions, and vibrant community discussions.
Join the 105,922 members that receive our newsletter.
Have a news tip? Let us know.
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is expected to be exceptionally active, according to researchers at Colorado State University. In their initial forecast, they predict 11 hurricanes, marking the highest prediction...
by Murray Scown, Lund University and Frances Eleanor Dunn, Utrecht University (TheConversation) Perilously situated between rising sea levels and pressures from upstream lie coastal river deltas and their roughly half...
A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Atlantic High Seas associated with Hurricane Lee with peak seas of around 47 feet near the center as the system moves slowly...
Access exclusive insights, engage in vibrant discussions, and gain perspectives from our CEO.
Sign Up
Maritime and offshore news trusted by our 105,922 members delivered daily straight to your inbox.
Essential news coupled with the finest maritime content sourced from across the globe.
Sign Up
Join The Club
