Latest Hurricane Ian Forecast is Bad News for Florida

The latest forecast from the NWS National Hurricane Center on Hurricane Ian paints an ominious picture for state of Florida.

Hurricane Ian passed over Cuba hurricane Monday night before emerging in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico as a powerful category 3 hurricane with sustained winds of 115 mph and higher gusts.

Ian is forecast to approach the west coast of Florida as an extremely dangerous major hurricane Wednesday into Wednesday night, bringing with it hurricane-force winds, heavy rains, considerable floding, and life-threatening storm surge to the central Gulf Coast of Florida from Fort Myers to the Tampa Bay area.

As of 11 a.m. Eastern Time, Hurricane Ian was located about 305 miles south-southwest of Sarasota, Florida, moving toward the north at 10 mph. A turn toward the north-northeast forecast tonight and Wednesday along with a eyebrow-raising reduction in forward speed.

By 3 p.m. ET, the minimum pressure had decreased to 952 millibars.

The National Weather Service published a great thread Twitter thread highlighting some of the dangers associated with the storm.

Follow: @NWS and @NHC_Atlantic on Twitter for the latest on Hurricane Ian.

The well-defined eye of Ian emerged off the coast of western Cuba about an hour ago, with a maximum sustained wind speed of 100kt/115mph — a category three hurricane.

Life-threatening storm surge looks increasingly likely along much of the FL west coast where a storm surge warning is in effect, with the highest risk from Fort Myers to the Tampa Bay region. Listen to advice given by local officials and follow evacuation orders.

Hurricane-force winds are expected in the hurricane warning area in southwest and west-central Florida beginning Wednesday morning with tropical storm conditions expected by this evening. Residents should rush all preparations to completion today.

Heavy rainfall will increase across the Florida Keys and south Florida today, spreading into central and northern Florida tonight and Wednesday, into the Southeast U.S. by Thursday and Friday, likely causing flash, urban, and small stream flooding.

Considerable flooding is expected across central Florida into southern Georgia and coastal South Carolina, with widespread, prolonged moderate to major river flooding expected across central Florida.

As you can see below, the eye of Hurricane Ian is now well-defined:

Just checked out the Key West radar. Holy crap is that a specimen—all the more impressive because it’s recovering from land interaction. #Hurricane #IAN pic.twitter.com/CccnHhRXfs

— Josh Morgerman (@iCyclone) September 27, 2022

The U.S. Coast Guard is also preparing for the storm, conducting a pre-storm overflight of the Tampa Bay area and staging assets in Freeport, Bahamas for storm avoidance and relief efforts once the storm has passed.

#HappeningNow USCG Sector St Pete set Port Condition YANKEE for #HurricaneIan, closing the port to inbound traffic. A flight survey of #Tampabay area ports was also completed. Follow @NWSTampaBay for storm updates. Port conditions in Tampa Bay at https://t.co/lNWbbov5Oh pic.twitter.com/3REDjSpKYx

— USCGSoutheast (@USCGSoutheast) September 26, 2022

#HurricaneIan #Prep the @USCGSoutheast 87-foot patrol boat fleet is staged in Freeport, #Bahamas for storm avoidance. These cutter crews will be integral for any search and rescue, and port reconstitution necessary when the worst of the storm passes. #Partnerships pic.twitter.com/rRg2bSDfHV

— USCGSoutheast (@USCGSoutheast) September 27, 2022

The U.S. Coast Guard Captain of the Port (COTP) has now ordered Port Condition ZULU for the ports of Tampa, St. Petersburg, and Manatee, and Fort Myers due to the possibility of gale force winds (34-47 mph) entering the Tampa Bay area within 12 hours. ZULU means no vessel movements and port waterfront operations unless previously authorized by the COTP.

Here’s another look at Ian’s eye developing this morning:

High resolution imagery of Hurricane Ian's eye clearing this morning. pic.twitter.com/kJKWbEG6Dy

— CIRA (@CIRA_CSU) September 27, 2022

Here’s another look showing lightning:

As #HurricaneIan churns near Cuba, #GOESEast can see its distinct eye as well as #lightning flashing around the storm.#Ian is a major Category 3 #hurricane that is continuing to strengthen in the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

Latest: https://t.co/FYrreOueMf pic.twitter.com/Rh85xqu0Rt

— NOAA Satellites (@NOAASatellites) September 27, 2022

NASA has now moved its Artemis I rocket back into the Vehicle Assembly Building at the agency’s Kennedy Space Center to ride out the storm.

Arrived! The #Artemis I stack has entered the Vehicle Assembly Building where technicians will prepare Orion and @NASA_SLS to ride out Hurricane Ian. pic.twitter.com/HsYa2RwWxE

— Orion Spacecraft (@NASA_Orion) September 27, 2022

Mandatory evacuation orders are in place in counties along the Florida Gulf Coast. Check FloridaDisaster.org for the latest evacuation orders.

Some oil and gas producers have started shutting in wells in the Gulf of Mexico.

Do you know where to find information about how Hurricane #Ian will impact your local area? See products from your local NWS office: @NWSKeyWest@NWSTampaBay @NWSMiami @NWSMelbourne @NWSTallahassee @NWSJacksonville pic.twitter.com/DOlzwFEnBM

— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) September 27, 2022