Screenshot of video released by the Iranian-backed Houthis showing the attack on the MT CHIOS LION in the Red Sea, July 15, 2024.
A ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas announce this week could signal the beginning of the end for Houthi attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea, maritime security firm Ambrey reports.
The ceasefire, signed in Doha, Qatar, is scheduled to take effect on Sunday, January 19, 2025. The 42-day first phase includes provisions for suspension of hostilities, Israeli military withdrawal, and humanitarian aid increases.
Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, leader of the Houthi movement, stated on Thursday that their “military operations will continue” if Israel violates the agreement, reflecting the group’s position of linking their maritime operations directly to the Israel-Hamas conflict.
The Houthi campaign against commercial shipping began with the seizure of the GALAXY LEADER on November 19, 2023, and has since expanded to target vessels with increasingly loose connections to Israel, as well as US and UK-owned shipping. The attacks have resulted in two vessels sunk, multiple ships damaged, and four seafarer casualties.
However, Ambrey analysts suggest that Phase 2 of the ceasefire, which involves a permanent ceasefire, the full withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza, and the further release of hostages, could give the Houthi reason to officially end their campaign against Israel, US, and UK maritime interests. Yet, the group will likely maintain their ability to resume attacks if they deem it necessary.
“The Houthi have constituted a threat to the maritime domain for the overwhelming majority of the past seven years,” Ambrey notes. “…It is likely the Houthi will continue to pose a latent threat to the maritime domain as tensions in the Middle East will persist.”
For now, maritime stakeholders can expect a gradual return of shipping to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, contingent upon the ceasefire’s success and clear signals from the Houthi movement regarding their intentions.
“Provided the ceasefire holds, and the Houthi signal their intent to honour it, a return of shipping to the Bab el-Mandeb Strait will occur gradually,” Ambrey stated.
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