Dry Bulk Newbuilding Orders Hit 30-Year Low Amid Market Uncertainty

Dry bulk vessel orders have collapsed to their lowest level in three decades, with newbuilding contracting plummeting 92% year-over-year in the first two months of 2025, industry association BIMCO reported this week. The dramatic slowdown reached a critical point in February when no new vessels were ordered.

According to BIMCO’s Shipping Analysis Manager Filipe Gouveia, multiple factors are contributing to this unprecedented decline. “Weak freight rates, high newbuilding prices, long lead times and uncertainty are likely discouraging contracting,” Gouveia notes.

The market downturn is particularly evident in second-hand vessel prices, which have seen a 12% decline for five-year-old ships since mid-2024. In contrast, newbuilding prices have remained relatively stable, dropping only 1%.

Current market conditions show significant delivery delays, with smaller bulkers ordered now facing delivery dates starting from 2027, while larger vessels won’t be available until 2028. Competition from container and tanker sectors for shipyard capacity continues to keep newbuilding prices elevated.

The industry faces additional challenges ahead. “The dry bulk medium-term market outlook is currently very uncertain,” Gouveia explains. “The outlook for iron ore and coal seems weak, while a potential return to normal Red Sea routings and burgeoning trade wars may further weaken demand”.

Despite these challenges, the current dry bulk orderbook, representing 10% of the existing fleet, remains sufficient for normal fleet replacement. Looking forward, Gouveia suggests that “fleet renewal and decarbonization are likely to be the key drivers for contracting, as demand growth is expected to remain low.”

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