Join our crew and become one of the 108,866 members that receive our newsletter.

Stock photo shows an oil tanker at a terminal

The Sea Port Oil Terminal has a proposed capacity of 2 million barrels per day, Stock Photo: tcly / Shutterstock

Crude Oil Tanker Fleet Growth Flatlines as Deliveries Hit Lowest Level Since 1988

Mike Schuler
Total Views: 548
January 22, 2025

New crude oil tanker deliveries hit a 36-year low in 2024, with only 17 new vessels joining the global fleet, representing a capacity of 2.5 million deadweight tonnes (DWT), according to BIMCO.

This marks a dramatic 74% drop in delivery capacity compared to the previous year.

The impact of this slowdown is particularly evident in fleet growth, which crawled to just 0.2% in 2024, marking the slowest expansion in 23 years. While the Aframax and Suezmax segments showed modest growth of 0.5% and 1.1% respectively, the VLCC segment actually contracted by 0.2% due to vessel recycling and zero new deliveries.

BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Niels Rasmussen, attributes this trend to a significant drop in contracting during 2022.

“Deliveries and fleet growth ended at multi-year lows as contracting in 2022 fell to only 3.2m DWT, 83% lower than the last 10 years’ average. This is despite Russian sanctions leading to longer voyages which contributed to a substantial rise in earnings during 2022,” says Rasmussen.

The combination of minimal fleet additions and low recycling rates has pushed the average age of crude tankers to 12.8 years – the highest in 26 years. Currently, vessels aged 20 years or older represent 19% of the fleet and 18% of total capacity, suggesting a potential wave of recycling in the coming years.

However, the industry shows signs of revival. The order book has rebounded significantly since 2023, with the order book/fleet ratio rising from 2.8% to 10.4% at the start of 2025. Looking ahead, the sector could see an average annual capacity increase of 2.5% through 2028, aligning with slowing global oil demand growth.

The renewal of the fleet also presents an opportunity for decarbonization. While only 3.6% of current crude tankers can use alternative fuels, upcoming deliveries show a marked improvement – 18% of new vessels will be alternative-fuel capable, with an additional 29% designed for future retrofitting.

“Low deliveries and recycling of ships have caused the crude tanker fleet to age considerably. Higher newbuild contracting during the last two years, however, can accelerate both the renewal and decarbonisation of the fleet in the coming years, especially if the oldest ships are recycled at the same time,” says Rasmussen.

Tags:

Unlock Exclusive Insights Today!

Join the gCaptain Club for curated content, insider opinions, and vibrant community discussions.

Sign Up
Back to Main
close

JOIN OUR CREW

Maritime and offshore news trusted by our 108,866 members delivered daily straight to your inbox.