CBO Warns Navy’s Ambitious 2025 Shipbuilding Plan Faces Major Hurdles

The U.S. Navy’s 2025 shipbuilding plan aims to expand its fleet to 390 battle force ships by 2054, but achieving this vision comes with a hefty price tag, according to a new report from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).

The CBO estimates the Navy’s shipbuilding costs will average $40 billion annually (in 2024 dollars) over the next three decades—46% more than what has been appropriated annually over the past five years. The comprehensive modernization effort would drive the Navy’s total annual budget, including operations and maintenance, from $255 billion to an unprecedented $340 billion by 2054.

While the Navy’s 2025 plan outlines an eventual fleet size of 390 ships, the fleet is projected to experience a significant contraction before any expansion. According to the CBO, ship numbers are expected to drop to 283 vessels by 2027, though plans call for eventual procurement of 364 new combat, logistics, and support ships.

The Navy’s firepower is also expected to decline over the next decade before ramping up as the fleet grows. The plan also envisions distributing firepower more evenly across the fleet, aligning with a broader shift toward smaller, versatile ships rather than concentrating power in fewer, larger platforms.

The ambitious procurement schedule places unprecedented demands on the U.S. shipbuilding industrial base, particularly in the production of nuclear-powered submarines. Shipyards would need to significantly ramp up production, delivering more naval tonnage annually than they have over the past decade.

The Navy’s ambitious plan to modernize and grow its fleet underscores the challenges of balancing fiscal constraints with strategic goals. With the CBO projecting costs 17% higher than Navy estimates, questions remain about how—or whether—Congress will fully fund the vision.

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