Asia-Europe Container Spot Rates Find a Floor—For Now

By Gavin van Marle (The Loadstar) –

This week’s FAK rate hikes introduced by carriers on the Asia-Europe trades managed to arrest 13 weeks of successive spot freight rate declines.

All the major spot rate indices this week showed a slight increase on the trades.

The Shanghai-Rotterdam leg on Drewry’s World Container Index (WCI) increased 2%, week on week to end at $2,636 per 40ft, while the Shanghai-Genoa leg was unchanged, at $3,745 per 40ft.

Xeneta’s XSI Far East-North Europe route showed a marginal week-on-week increase of just under 1%, to $2,733 per 40ft, while the Freightos Baltic Index’s Asia-North Europe increased 1%, to $2,973 per 40ft and the Asia-Mediterranean was up 1%, to $4,177 per 40ft.

Although these levels are considerably below the FAK [freight all kinds] rate of around $4,100 per 40ft to North Europe carriers were seeking with the 1 March increases, lines will find some comfort in the fact that three months of dropping prices have found some sort of floor.

How long that remains will depend on their capacity management over the next couple of months, which, as several speakers at this week’s S&P Global TPM25 conference in Long Beach noted, is particularly difficult while they are simultaneously rolling out new networks.

“Carriers are focused on getting the new networks up and running, which means blank sailings are not as effective as normal, and while this is under way they are also trying to hang on to market share,” Vespucci Maritime’s Lars Jensen told delegates.

However, new analysis of forthcoming capacity changes indicates carriers are on the verge of beginning to reduce capacity from Asia into Northern Europe, while increasing it to the better-paying Mediterranean destinations.

Using MSC’s upcoming proforma schedules as a proxy, liner database eeSea noted: “In Northern Europe, MSC’s expected (aka proforma) monthly capacity dips from an average of 432,000 teu in the six months leading up to the network upheavals, down to 358,000 average monthly teu in May and June, a decline of 17%.

“On the Mediterranean side, the six-month average of 268,000 teu up to January 2025 rises to an average 356,000 teu in May and June – a 25% increase,” head of operations and forecasting Destine Ozuygur said.

She added that these reflected boarders capacity changes were under way on the two trades, as previously reported by The Loadstar.

In contrast, spot rates on Asia-North America trades witnessed their eighth successive week of price declines – the WCI’s Shanghai-Los Angeles leg was down 9% week on week, to $3,166 per 40ft, while the Shanghai-New York leg decreased 6%, to $4,320 per 40ft.

Meanwhile, on the transatlantic trade rates have largely been flat for the best part of a month, in the range of $2,350-$2,400 per 40ft, according to the WCI, and a number of carriers have announced new FAK rates to be implemented at the beginning of April.

MSC said its new FAK rate on Antwerp-New York would be $7,000 per 40ft from 2 April, from the current $6,000.

CMA CGM also announced a new FAK level of a (weirdly precise) $3,026 per 40ft from Rotterdam to New York for 1 April, while Hapag-Lloyd is set to introduce a peak season surcharge of $750 per 40ft on all shipments from the Mediterranean to the US, Canada, and Mexico from 5 April.

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