Ambrey: Red Sea Shipping Expected to Resume Gradually After Conditional Houthi Ceasefire

Maritime traffic through the Red Sea is expected to make a gradual comeback following the recent Israel-Hamas ceasefire, though security experts warn that risks remain for certain vessels.

According to maritime security firm Ambrey, the resumption of shipping operations hinges on the durability of the ceasefire that took effect on Sunday, January 19. The ceasefire’s first phase is scheduled to last 42 days, with negotiations for Phase 2 expected by week five.

“The threat to shipping in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden continues to be conditional,” Ambrey notes in their latest threat assessment.

While the Houthi-aligned Humanitarian Operations Coordination Center (HOCC) has announced a pause in military operations against merchant vessels, they’ve explicitly excluded Israel-owned or -flagged vessels from this cessation. The group maintains they will resume operations if they perceive any “aggression” against them.

The Joint Maritime Information Centre (JMIC) has urged caution, advising the “maritime industry should be skeptical of recent Houthi claims.” They maintain that risks remain “high” for vessels associated with Israel, the US, or UK.

Since November 2023, the Houthis’ campaign has resulted in over 100 vessel attacks, two ships sunk, four seafarers killed, and the ongoing hostage situation involving 25 crew members from the car carrier Galaxy Leader. The Bahamas-flagged vessel, operated by Japanese shipping company NYK Line, is owned by a subsidiary of Ray Car Carriers, which is co-owned by Israeli businessman Abraham Ungar.

In a particularly telling statement, Houthi leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi declared on Monday that his forces “are in constant readiness for immediate intervention at any time the Israeli enemy returns to escalation.”

The situation remains complex, with multiple factors potentially affecting maritime security. Any perceived breach of the ceasefire agreement by Israel could trigger a flashpoint escalation, while US or UK military actions against the Houthi would likely result in renewed threats to their respective vessels.

“This is clearly a positive development, but we should not expect to see container lines rush to return to the Suez Canal,” stated Drewry in their latest analysis. The research firm estimates that carriers will likely take months rather than weeks to resume normal Suez operations, requiring absolute certainty that the threat has been eliminated.

For now, shipping companies are advised to conduct thorough risk assessments and implement appropriate security measures before attempting Red Sea passages.

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