Israel’s Twin Strikes in Tehran, Beirut Ratchet Up Tensions

By Ethan Bronner (Bloomberg) —

Within seven hours overnight, Israel targeted top leaders of Hezbollah in Beirut and Hamas in Tehran in a show of its willingness to risk retaliation and regional conflagration while hunting down enemies abroad.

Israeli officials said the killing of Hezbollah’s Fuad Shukr in the Lebanese capital was in response to a rocket attack last weekend from Lebanon that claimed the lives of a dozen young people playing soccer in the Golan Heights. Shukr was said to be Hezbollah’s chief of staff, in charge of its military activity.

The missile fired into the Tehran guest house occupied by Ismail Haniyeh, the political chief of Hamas, killed him and his bodyguard. Israel has vowed to eliminate every Hamas official since the Oct. 7 attack that triggered the war in Gaza. Israel hasn’t official claimed responsibility, but no one in the country doubts who did it.

“It’s part of Israel’s long-term counter-terrorism paradigm that you go after the leaders of terror organizations,” noted Yohanan Plesner, president of the Israel Democracy Institute, a think tank focused on political reform and critic of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. “There’s a broad consensus among Israelis that all those who perpetrated the Oct. 7 massacre should cease to exist.”

From the outside, the risks appear steep. Talks under way with Hamas to free hostages and impose a cease-fire on the nearly 10-month-old war in Gaza seem likely to stall if not break down. While Lebanon’s Hezbollah has not confirmed Shukr’s death, the diplomacy aimed at getting it to stop firing missiles at Israel and move its forces away from the border seems equally likely to be affected.

In a sign of international alarm, China condemned “the act of assassination,” expressing concern that it “may cause a possible escalation and turbulence in this region,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian said at a regular press briefing in Beijing on Wednesday. 

Egypt, too, condemned what it said was “dangerous Israeli escalation policy,” saying that the timing and lack of progress in cease-fire talks indicate “the absence of Israeli political will to calm the situation,” undermining mediation efforts.

Within Israel, though, the view is different. As of Wednesday mid-morning, there were no changes in the Home Front Command defensive guidelines. Ben Gurion Airport was operating normally. And the commentary was congratulatory and focused on the way such military actions produce results in the long term.

Israeli analysts noted that Haniyeh was killed in Iran where he was visiting, not in Qatar, where he lives, in order not to alienate the Qataris who are key to the hostage talks.

“There will certainly be a pause in the negotiations,” said Yaakov Amidror, a former national security adviser. “But after the initial shock wears off, there will be a cooler-headed calculation by Hamas.” Speaking of the overall Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, who is hiding in Gaza, he added: “The entire negotiations strategy is based on his understanding that he has fewer and fewer cards to play.”

Following the Oct. 7 death of 1200 in Israel and abduction of 250 others to Gaza, Israel’s war against Hamas has killed nearly 40,000 Palestinians, according to the Hamas-run health ministry which doesn’t distinguish between civilians and fighters. Israel says it has killed some 14,000 fighters. Hamas is labeled a terrorist group by the US and European Union. 

Less clear is how Iran — chief sponsor of both Hamas and Hezbollah, as well as the Houthis in Yemen, all groups that are attacking Israel — will react to having a visitor to a state ceremony assassinated under its nose. 

The strike on Tehran certainly undercuts the message of diplomacy that it had sought to project hours earlier at the inauguration of incoming President Masoud Pezeshkian. He vowed to improve ties with the West and the world at large at a ceremony attended by officials from the Gulf, European Union and China.

On Wednesday, Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, spoke not of diplomacy but retaliation, vowing that Israel has “prepared the ground for its severe punishment.”

In April, after Israel killed two Iranian generals in the Syrian capital Damascus, Tehran fired some 300 missiles and drones at Israel, its first direct attack. While most of the projectiles were shot down by a coalition including the US, UK, France and Jordan, it was clear that traditional red lines had been crossed. 

Now, says Firas Modad, founder of Modad Geopolitics, a consultancy for investors, there is likely to be “a severe increase in risks to energy infrastructure” in the Persian Gulf as well as “to shipping in the Persian Gulf-Arabian Sea-Indian Ocean, to assets located near US bases in the region, to aviation” in the region and “to US and UK personnel.”

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, asked while visiting the Philippines about the impact of the killings, said he didn’t think war was inevitable.

“We’re going to do everything we can to make sure that we keep things from turning into a broader conflict throughout the region,” he said. “If Israel is attacked, we certainly will help defend Israel. You saw us do that in April. You can expect to see us do that again.”

Targeted assassination has a long history in Israel. In his 2018 book “Rise and Kill First,” Israeli journalist Ronen Bergman detailed more than 2,700 such operations involving poisoned toothpaste, armed drones, spare tires with remote-control bombs and exploding mobile phones. He said Israel killed half a dozen Iranian nuclear scientists and strongly suggested it poisoned Yasser Arafat, the longtime Palestinian leader, which Israeli officials have consistently denied.

The mother of a hostage held in Gaza said that she was happy to see any Hamas leader killed, but that the attack shouldn’t stop a deal and her son should be brought back home. 

Plesner, the democracy institute chief, said he agreed that the overnight assassinations will play a role in deterring Iran as well as its proxies. 

“I’m not sure it will ruin the hostage talks,” he said. “Those negotiating know they are next in line.”

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