Tropical Storm Expected to Form Over Warm Gulf of Mexico Waters

The NWS National Hurricane Center says Tropical Depression Nine has formed over the central Gulf of Mexico.

The system, located about 480 miles ( 770 km) east-southeast of port Mansfield, Texas as of Monday morning, is expected to become a tropical storm before it reaches the Texas coast Tuesday morning.

The fast-moving storm is not expected to become hurricane, with the main threat being excessive rainfall in portions of south Texas.

“Satellite images indicate that the system is becoming better organized and it is expected to become a tropical depression later today. It has a high ( 90 percent) chance of formation during the next 48 hours and in the next 7 days,” the NWS said in a 10 a.m. CDT update. As a result, the National Hurricane Center has initiated advisories on Tropical Depression Nine. Check the NHC website for the latest forecasts.

This latest system comes as the NHC is already monitoring two tropical storms, one post-tropical cyclone, and another system that has a 40-60% of developing in the eastern Atlantic near Africa, in addition to activity in the Pacific basin.

The tropical activity comes as the Atlantic hurricane season enters its peak season. Forecasters at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are predicting an increased likelihood of an above-average 2023 Atlantic hurricane season as record-warm Atlantic sea surface temperatures are likely to counterbalance the usually limiting atmospheric conditions associated with the ongoing El Nino event. The Gulf of Mexico is particularly warm:

In fact, the Gulf of Mexico this month reached its hottest average temperature on record “by a wide margin,” according to meteorologist Michael Lowry:

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center’s mid-season outlook showed an increased confidence in the likelihood of an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season to 60%. The previous outlook issued in May predicted a 30% chance of an above-average season, a 30% chance of a below-average season, and a 40% chance of a near-normal season. The updated outlook predicts a 25% chance of near-normal activity and a 15% chance of a below-normal season.

Looking at numbers, the 2023 hurricane outlook now predicts 14-21 named storms, 6-11 hurricanes, and 2-5 major hurricanes with 70% confidence, including storms that have already formed this season.