Historic North Atlantic Storm On Track for Saturday – UPDATE

Fred Pickhardt
Total Views: 17
January 24, 2013

NOAA OPC Wind and Wave Forecast for 12Z 26 January 2013

Update: The storm “bombed out” at 930mb on Saturday. For reference Hurricane Sandy was measured at 940 millibars.

Update: A 1003mb low off the Middle Atlantic Coast this afternoon will move and deepen very rapidly as it tracks northeastward with winds forecast up to 50 knots this evening, reaching upwards of 60 knots by 12Z Friday and as high as 80-85 knots possible Friday night. Waves associated with this low will buildup to 17 meters (56 feet) by early Saturday. This system will likely deepen to near historical levels with models suggesting a minimum pressure of about 923mb early Saturday.


NOAA OPC Surface Forecast 12Z 25 January 2013 showing possible historic storm low.
NOAA OPC Surface Forecast 12Z 25 January 2013 showing possible historic storm low.

A historic extratropical storm is possible over the central North Atlantic on Saturday, the 26th of January based on the latest computer models. A weak 1014mb low will move off the Virginia and North Carolina coasts early Thursday.  It will move rapidly east to northeast, deepening to a 977 mb storm low by 12Z Friday, the 25th, southeast of Cape Race with winds up to 50 knots. Thereafter, this low is forecast to “bomb out” as it moves northeast, dropping 57 mb of pressure to 920 mb by 12Z Saturday, the 26th, with hurricane force winds of 85 knots (nearly 100 mph) likely.

The all-time record for North Atlantic extratropical storms was the Braer Storm of January 1993 that reached a minimum pressure of 914 mb (26.99 in Hg) on January 10th. The 1993 storm caused blizzard conditions across much of Scotland and also led to the final breakup of the oil tanker MV Braer, which had been stranded in rocks off the Shetland Islands by a previous storm.

Via Ocean Weather Services blog


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