As refineries in Europe and Asia begin to come offline in April and May due to maintenance, respectively, the tanker market will be sustained as additional crude hits the market, putting further pressure on crude prices.
Looking ahead, a variable that may affect the tanker sector includes the resurgence of Iranian oil production if sanctions are lifted. Waldegrave see 500,000 bbls per day of crude to come into the market almost immediately and after 12-18 months, up over 1 million bbls/day could be seen – mostly headed toward India and the Far East.
If this crude displaces West African oil, it could be a negative for the tanker sector as ton-mile demand would subsequently lower, but if it displaces middle east oil, Waldegrave sees a neutral affect on the tanker sector.
Watch his latest report here: