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NOAA has increased its confidence for an above-normal Atlantic hurricane season in an updated outlook for the 2008 season released today.  NOAA is now projecting an 85% probability of an above-normal season, up from just the 65% probability of the May outlook.

Included in these numbers are the 5 named storms already formed this season.  In May, NOAA forecast just 12-16 named storms with 6-9 developing into hurricanes.  The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30 and on average produces 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes.

Forecasters attribute this adjustment to atmospheric and oceanic conditions across the Atlantic Basin that favor storm development - combined with the strong early season activity including a very active July, the third most active since 1886.

A NOAA forecaster states:

“Leading indicators for an above-normal season during 2008 include the continuing multi-decadal signal – atmospheric and oceanic conditions that have spawned increased hurricane activity since 1995 – and the lingering effects of La Niña,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “Some of these conditions include reduced wind shear, weaker trade winds, an active West African monsoon system, the winds coming off of Africa and warmer-than-average water in the Atlantic Ocean.”

The full NOAA press release can be found HERE.

Also see the Weather Charts, Tools & More section of gCaptain’s Tools page for all your weather and tracking needs.

If we only had one technology related wish for 2008 it would be that every mariner watched this video. Reminder: This is important people!

FROM WIRED:

While micro-messaging service Twitter may be one of the best tools for citizen reporting in emergencies such as the Southern California wildfires, the service’s real usefulness is its ability to get messages to users’ friends and family and provide evacuation updates — even when cell networks are overloaded, according to homeland security consultant W. David Stephenson.

As important as the updates you wrote about, they’re nowhere near as important as using Twitter to let your family know you’re ok (instead of cell calls, which every time they’re used in disasters end up crashing the network — and don’t get through, either): because they’re packet based, they’re cued up until they can route around obstacles or gaps in the network, and the 140-character limit means they take up a tiny amount of bandwidth, leaving it for those who need it most.

Even cooler, Stephenson tells THREAT LEVEL, are the Red Cross’s Twitter channels.

* The redcross channel lets them push information during a mass evacuation. Since cellphone customers can sign up for Twitter ‘on the fly,’ they will encourage evacuees to text ‘FOLLOW REDCROSS’ to 40404, and sign up for updates. The messages will include information about where the shelters are, distribution sites, and other contact info.

* The safeandwell channel is used more for inbound communication. Those who text ‘FOLLOW SAFEANDWELL’ to 40404 will automatically be followed back. That means they can send their private information as a Direct Message to the American Red Cross. (’D SAFEANDWELL Larry Melman, 205-xxx-xxxx, 1313 Mockingbird Lane, Bay Minette, is safe in a shelter.’) That maintains the privacy of the individual, and also serves to funnel the information to a centralized database.

Stephenson shows how to use Twitter in emergencies in this episode of his video series 21st Century Disaster Tips You Won’t Hear From Officials:

Thanks to Jesse Robbins for the find.

gCaptain’s Twitter Page

A quick YouTube video of ships battling heavy seas and rogue waves.

Here is a list of gCaptain’s picks for the most interesting ways to track Hurricanes.

1) IBISeye.com’s Hurricane Tracker. Click on past and future tracking points for more detail on the storm.

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