calling fredwx...talk to us about Ernesto

**c.captain** · August 2nd, 2012, 06:10 PM

Where's it going to land? Is it coming into the GoM? How strong will it be? Which of all the models should we be paying attention to the most? I mean what's the point of having all these different models if this is what you have to work from? Why can't they just decide on a single universal model or a mean of all the various models or something besides this plate of multicolored spagetti?

talk to us Fred...

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**Skoidat69** · August 2nd, 2012, 11:25 PM

Originally Posted by c.captain

Where's it going to land? Is it coming into the GoM? How strong will it be? Which of all the models should we be paying attention to the most? I mean what's the point of having all these different models if this is what you have to work from? Why can't they just decide on a single universal model or a mean of all the various models or something besides this plate of multicolored spagetti?

talk to us Fred...

Hopefully it hits some land before coming into the GoM cause I don't want Ernesto messing with my crew change next Friday ....

**rjbpilot** · August 3rd, 2012, 01:06 AM

Here comes Ernesto....

**fredwx** · August 4th, 2012, 11:09 AM

Ernesto is tracking wnw along a track close to the normal August track towards the Yucatan and western Gulf, however, Ernesto may continue to struggle to strengthen as model differ widely, some building it to a hurricane while others weaken it back to a depression....

Normal August track can be seen here http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/august.gif

Due to high degree of uncertainty in the forecast of Ernesto's strength, the riskfor storm force (50 knots or higher) winds remains low to moderate during thenext 5 days over the central and westernCaribbean Sea.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/grap...nd120#contents

**fredwx** · August 4th, 2012, 11:15 AM

Here is a model that sometimes works when all others don't http://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fb...type=3&theater

**c.captain** · August 4th, 2012, 11:28 AM

Originally Posted by fredwx

Here is a model that sometimes works when all others don't

I thought this was the model meteorologists used to make weather predictions....

anyway regarding Ernesto, it seems to be holding to a Yucatan landfall but still wondering what changes in present conditions would cause a turn through the Yucatan Channel into the GoM proper? Do you agree the ridge if high pressure over the central plains will hold pretty solid?

**fredwx** · August 4th, 2012, 12:58 PM

Past historical tracks suggests if Ernesto does not weaken, that the highest landfall probability (40%) is for TX or LA....30% Mexico or Central America .... 25% MS to FL.