An intense hurricane force storm is forecast to move from south of Iceland towards the coast of Norway on Monday with a large area of winds forces 10-12 (50-70 knots) which will cause waves to build upwards of 14 meters (46 ft.). Over the northeastern North Atlantic.

This storm is not as deep as the recent 930 mb storm, however due to strong high pressure near the Azores there will be a strong pressure gradient that will result in a fairly large area of storm force or higher winds.

Update: Monday February 4th:  The intense storm low is producing significant wave heights of up to 17 meters (about 56 ft).  The significant wave height is the average of the 1/3 heights so individual waves could be much higher!  Not a good time to be departing westbound via north of Scotland….

Visual at 12Z 4 February

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16 January Update: 

A major hurricane force storm continues over the western North Pacific with winds up to 65 knots and significant wave heights up to 20 meters (about 66 feet)! The significant wave height is the average of the 1/3 highest waves which means that some waves will be higher. Given a significant wave of 20 meters, about 1 in 10 waves could be 25 meters (82 feet) and 1 out of 100 could be as high as 33 meters (108 feet)!

Previously reported on 15 January:

A very dangerous 936 mb storm peaked today over the western North Pacific with a min pressure of 932 mb and is moving northeast at 25 knots with hurricane force winds and very high sea and swell conditions.  Hurricane Sandy, by comparison, reached a minimum pressure of 940 millibars and was the largest Atlantic hurricane in recorded history.

At 12Z 15 January the center of the storm was near 42N/163E with winds of Force 11 or higher (60-85 knots) and waves 12-18 meters (39-59 feet) within 300NM west and southwest of the center and winds forces 9-11 and waves 5.5-14 meters (18-46 feet) up to 540NM from the center.

This storm and will now weaken slowly as it moves northeastward.

Keep in mind that the wave heights here are the significant wave height which is defined as the average of the 1/3 highest waves. This means that some individual waves could be up to twice the significant wave height!

This storm appears to be an example of a rapidly deepening “bomb” low that is often associated with some winter season storms over both the North Atlantic and North Pacific oceans. These systems are associated with what is known as a warm air seclusion where the warm surface air is lifted up during the occlusion process and then wrapped around the low center into its cold southwestern quadrant.

932 millibars!

Gale force winds are predicted to extend from 36N to 60N, over 1,400 nautical mile wide swath of ocean.

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A dangerous winter storm is developing rapidly over the western North Pacific east of Japan, one that has the potential to be even more powerful than Hurricane Sandy.

During the next 24-48 hours this storm will deepen to 938 mb with winds Force 10 or more (55-80 knots) and significant wave heights building as high as 19 meters (63 feet) within 420 NM south and southeast of the center.

Sandy, by comparison, reached a minimum low pressure of 940 millibars.

This is a very dangerous storm and all shipping should stay well clear of it’s path.

Since wave energy increases by a factor of 4 as the wave height doubles, a 19 meter wave is extremely powerful.

The NOAA wave forecasts are for the “significant wave height” which is defined as the average of the 1/3 highest waves. This means that some waves could be still higher. Given a 19 meter significant wave height there is a 1 out of 10 chance that of an individual wave reaching 24 meters (79 feet) could be encountered and a 1 out of 100 chance for a wave reaching over 31 meters (101 feet)!

Read more on waves

Few people (outside of Mariners) realize that there is another season of hurricane winds that occur each year over both the Atlantic and the Pacific that runs from September to May. These storms are not tracking through the tropics, but instead are associated with the extratropical cyclones of the higher latitudes. The frequency of hurricane-force wind events begins to increase in September and October, peaks in December and January, then tapers off sharply in April and May.  Some studies suggest there could be as many as 40 such events each season in both the North Atlantic and North Pacific Oceans.

When these hurricane-force storms occur over or near the main trans-oceanic shipping routes, they pose a significant threat to life and property from winds and high waves.  The 1991 Halloween Storm of “Perfect Storm” fame produced hurricane force winds with verified waves to 100 feet.  In 1998 the containership APL China lost 388 containers with another 400 damaged when it encountered hurricane force winds and 70ft waves in the North Pacific from an extra-tropical cyclone that was infused with energy from what was once “Typhoon Babs”.

Follow the discussion HERE

Today marks the 37th anniversary of the sinking of the SS Edmund Fitzgerald, the Great Lakes freighter that sank in a strong gale on eastern Lake Superior resulting in the loss of all 29 of its crew.  Today, the November 10, 1975 sinking remains the Great Lakes regions most famous and mysterious maritime disaster.  To learn more about her story, just listen above to the lyrics in Gordon Lightfoot’s famous song, The Wreck of the Edmund Fitzgerald.

Another good writeup can be found at failure magazine, HERE.

Do any Great Lakes guys remember her sinking?  We’d like to hear your stories in the comments section below.

NOAA Ship Ferdinand R. Hassler departed from NOAA’s Marine Operation Center in Norfolk this morning, to start post-SANDY surveys of critical deep water channels.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) meteorologist may finally be able to catch up on sleep as Sandy begins to disappear but the work of other departments within the agency have just started.

NOAA’s Office of Coast Survey navigation response teams and other survey assets are in the water (or soon will be), as they begin checking for underwater debris and shoaling that may pose a risk to navigation. Tasked by the U.S. Coast Guard Captains of the Port, these vessels can use multibeam echo sounders or side scan sonar, as conditions warrant, to search for the answers that would speed resumption of shipping and other vessel movements.

NOAA’s newest survey ship, the Ferdinand R. Hassler, began survey operations Tuesday in support of the U.S. Coast Guard efforts to re-open the Port of Virginia. Hassler was in port at NOAA’s Marine Operations Center – Atlantic in Norfolk, Virginia, for maintenance when Hurricane Sandy affected the area. The ship’s crew spent Monday completing the work and system tests necessary to get underway once the storm passed, and has now been returned to limited operational status.

Lt. Cmdr. Ben Evans, Hassler’s commanding officer, got the ship underway Tuesday, and returned Wednesday evening. The Coast Guard Captain of the Port for Hampton Roads requested that the ship survey critical portions of Thimble Shoal Channel and Chesapeake Channel, the deep draft routes to the ports of Hampton Roads and Baltimore.

“Surveying the deepest draft channels will allow the Coast Guard to decide when to re-open the port to unrestricted traffic without unnecessary delay,” Evans explained. “The ports of the Chesapeake Bay are critical to the U.S. economy and national security, so we need to make this effort as soon as the ship is ready to sail.”

The need for hydrographic surveying is critical. As of yesterday there were 78 large vessels, including portions of the Navy’s Atlantic Fleet, waiting to transit through the entrance to Chesapeake Bay.

The Hassler was also a pivotal survey asset last year, as Hampton Roads resumed operations after Hurricane Irene. At that time, Hassler was one of the three NOAA survey vessels used to clear the port from dangers caused by underwater debris or shoaling. Their work enabled a rapid resumption of shipping and port operations in 2011.

“Delays in shipping, even minor ones, cost the economy millions each year,” explained Rear Admiral Gerd Glang, director of NOAA’s Office of Coast Survey. “After Hurricane Irene last year, NOAA’s rapid maritime response paid dividends in the Hampton Roads area of Virginia, where an average of $5 million worth of cargo is shipped in or out, every hour. This year, rapid response is just as critical.”

The Norfolk Custom District is the country’s 9th largest in terms of the value of total imports and exports moving through the port, with nearly $55 billion in total trade in 2011.

As of Wednesday at noon, other assets of the Office of Coast Survey were responding as follows: 

NOAA Ship Thomas Jefferson started out this morning for New York Harbor, where they will survey for obstructions in waterways, starting a daybreak tomorrow. Visual reconnaissance indicates debris and missing containers may pose a danger to shipping.

Navigation Response Team 5 mobilized from Connecticut and got underway in New York at first light this morning, surveying Anchorage Channel. Their next priorities are the route up to the Manhattan cruise ship terminal, Sandy Hook Channel, and then the Global Marine Terminal.

NOAA Ship Ferdinand Hassler spent yesterday and today surveying deep draft ship channels in Chesapeake Channel and Thimble Shoal Channel, as 78 large vessels, including portions of the Navy’s Atlantic Fleet, waited to transit through the entrance to Chesapeake Bay.

NOAA R/V  Bay Hydro II is surveying in the Hampton Roads area yesterday and today, checking channels needed by coal shipments and aircraft carriers at Norfolk.

Navigation Response Team 2 is on its way from their regularly scheduled surveying off Florida’s coast, headed to help out in NY/NJ. Additionally, an operations manager is transporting mobile survey equipment to New York, as an additional survey resource on a vessel of opportunity.

NOAA R/V Potawaugh obilized this morning to Lewes, Del., to survey for shoaling that may pose a risk to safe navigation for the Cape May – Lewes Ferry and other vessels. They started surveying, using  the multibeam echo sounder, at 1 pm today.

Damage Assessment Imagery

Also on the job is NOAA’s  National Geodetic Survey (NGS) begins flying photo survey missions to assess storm damage. The data contained in these photos provide emergency and coastal managers with the information they need to develop recovery strategies, facilitate search-and-rescue efforts, identify hazards to navigation and HAZMAT spills, locate errant vessels, and provide documentation necessary for damage assessment through the comparison of before-and-after imagery.

Currently NGS is coordinating with federal, state, and local officials to conduct remote sensing efforts in response to Sandy. Early this morning, a NOAA King Air aircraft collected imagery of high impact areas of New Jersey from Atlantic City to Cape May on its first flight. On a second flight slated for later today, NOAA’s King Air will focus on areas of better forecast weather along Virginia Beach, Va., south to Cape Hatteras, N.C. A NOAA Twin Otter aircraft is scheduled to depart later today to collect imagery of areas from Ocean City, Md., south to Cape Henry, Va. (including Wallops Island and Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel).

While technological improvements in speed and engine reliability have made riding out a storm at sea marginally safer, no man-made invention have reduced the destructive force of giant waves crashing against steel ships. And no-one has captured the sheer agony and terror of witnessing a hurricane at sea like Joseph Conrad did in his classic novel Typhoon.

The following is an excerpt from the book which rings as true today as when it was published nearly 100 years ago:

It unveiled for a sinister, fluttering moment a ragged mass of clouds hanging low, the lurch of the long outlines of the ship, the black figures of men caught on the bridge, heads forward, as if petrified in the act of butting. The darkness palpitated down upon all this, and then the real thing came at last.

It was something formidable and swift, like the sudden smashing of a vial of wrath. It seemed to explode all round the ship with an overpowering concussion and a rush of great waters, as if an immense dam had been blown up to windward. In an instant the men lost touch of each other. This is the disintegrating power of a great wind: it isolates one from one’s kind. An earthquake, a landslip, an avalanche, overtake a man incidentally, as it were—without passion. A furious gale attacks him like a personal enemy, tries to grasp his limbs, fastens upon his mind, seeks to rout his very spirit out of him…

The motion of the ship was extravagant. Her lurches had an appalling helplessness: she pitched as if taking a header into a void, and seemed to find a wall to hit every time. When she rolled she fell on her side headlong, and she would be righted back by such a demolishing blow that Jukes felt her reeling as a clubbed man reels before he collapses. The gale howled and scuffled about gigantically in the darkness, as though the entire world were one black gully. At certain moments the air streamed against the ship as if sucked through a tunnel with a concentrated solid force of impact that seemed to lift her clean out of the water and keep her up for an instant with only a quiver running through her from end to end. And then she would begin her tumbling again as if dropped back into a boiling cauldron. Jukes tried hard to compose his mind and judge things coolly.

The sea, flattened down in the heavier gusts, would uprise and overwhelm both ends of our ship (the Nan-Shan) in snowy rushes of foam, expanding wide, beyond both rails, into the night. And on this dazzling sheet, spread under the blackness of the clouds and emitting a bluish glow, Captain MacWhirr could catch a desolate glimpse of a few tiny specks black as ebony, the tops of the hatches, the battened companions, the heads of the covered winches, the foot of a mast. This was all he could see of his ship. Her middle structure, covered by the bridge which bore him, his mate, the closed wheelhouse where a man was steering shut up with the fear of being swept overboard together with the whole thing in one great crash—her middle structure was like a half-tide rock awash upon a coast. It was like an outlying rock with the water boiling up, streaming over, pouring off, beating round—like a rock in the surf to which shipwrecked people cling before they let go—only it rose, it sank, it rolled continuously, without respite and rest, like a rock that should have miraculously struck adrift from a coast and gone wallowing upon the sea.

The Nan-Shan was being looted by the storm with a senseless, destructive fury: trysails torn out of the extra gaskets, double-lashed awnings blown away, bridge swept clean, weather-cloths burst, rails twisted, light-screens smashed—and two of the boats had gone already. They had gone unheard and unseen, melting, as it were, in the shock and smother of the wave. It was only later, when upon the white flash of another high sea hurling itself amidships, Jukes had a vision of two pairs of davits leaping black and empty out of the solid blackness, with one overhauled fall flying and an iron-bound block capering in the air, that he became aware of what had happened within about three yards of his back.

Click HERE to read the rest of this gripping tale of man vs the sea. And if you find yourself yearning for more high seas terror, or if are interested in a more modern tale, then check out the true story of the epic 1991 Nor’easter in Sebastian Junger’s  The Perfect Storm: A True Story of Men Against the Sea.

NEW YORK – Tug vessels steam into New York Harbor through heavy wind and rough waters as Hurricane Sandy approaches New York Harbor, Monday, Oct. 29, 2012. U.S. Coast Guard photo by Petty Officer 2nd Class Erik Swanson.

(Bloomberg) As midnight approaches America’s east coast Hurricane Sandy continues to lash the shoreline with wind, rain and snow. The system came ashore near Atlantic City, New Jersey, at 8 p.m. New York time, and by 9 p.m. the National Hurricane Center said it was receiving reports of hurricane-force wind gusts over Long Island and the New York metropolitan areas. Sandy is no longer a hurricane because it’s drawing energy from temperature differences and not the ocean, making the transition to a superstorm that may push a wall of water ashore in the Northeast.

As of 9 p.m. Eastern time, Sandy was 15 miles (24 kilometers) northwest of Atlantic City, moving west-northwest at 21 miles per hour with top sustained winds of 80 mph. It’s forecast to turn north by tomorrow and cross through Pennsylvania to reach New York on Oct. 31, the center said.

Rains are soaking the mid-Atlantic states, 3 feet (0.9 meters) of snow may fall in the Appalachians and a record- breaking storm surge may wash over Manhattan’s Battery Park.

Sandy’s winds had stretched to about 1,100 miles from end to end earlier today, according to the National Hurricane Center. It was the largest tropical system on record, forecasters said. A wind gust to 79 mph was reported at John F. Kennedy International Airport in New York, and another to 90 mph was reported at Islip, New York, the center said in the 9 p.m. Eastern time advisory.

Tides along the coast will be near their peak when the storm goes ashore, which may mean record amounts of water washing onto land, according to Jeff Masters, co-founder of Weather Underground in Ann Arbor, Michigan.

“These may be the highest storm tides ever recorded going back a century,” Masters said by telephone. “We’re looking, potentially, at a very expensive disaster for New York City.”

Sandy is so large that the storm will be felt along the East Coast from Maine to Virginia, Masters said.

“The timing certainly matters, but the location isn’t that important because some of the strongest winds are quite a ways removed from the center,” Masters said. “It’s a superstorm, it’s aptly named in terms of its size, its low central pressure, the weird angle it’s taking, the lateness of the season.”

By Brian K. Sullivan, Lynn Doan ©2012 BLOOMBERG

Thanks to MIT research scientists, Fernanda Viégas and Martin Wattenberg, who now lead Google’s “Big Picture” visualization research group, we’ve been given a never-before-seen look at the wind.

October 29, 2012 @ approx. 3 pm eastern

What’s even more amazing is to see the animated version of this picture.

As more detailed live data sources become available around the world, we’ll likely be seeing more of these images available.

A former USCG rescue swimmer, Mario Vittone is a leading expert on immersion hypothermia, drowning, sea survival, and safety at sea.

As I write this, the Coast Guard is still searching for two sailors missing from the the tall ship Bounty; the ship itself lies on the bottom of the Atlantic; and speculations have begun about what exactly happened out there. (Hurricane Sandy didn’t exactly sneak up on anyone.)  If I’ve learned anything in my career, it’s that speculation rarely lines up with facts. Those of us back on the beach are always missing some critical piece of information and all we can really do of value is hope. Guessing about what was done or should have been done is useless – and sometimes even dangerous.

Hands down the worst advice I have ever heard spouted from otherwise smart people – and I’ve heard it twice in conversations about the Bounty – is this: “You never step off until you have to step up!”

• It’s a wildly stupid speculation about how things might go during abandoning ship.
• It is bad advice that takes nothing outside the hull into account.
• I never sail with anyone who believes it.

No one takes the decision to abandon ship lightly, but I have seen it made too soon, and too late, both with tragic results. The sea isn’t a place for absolutes and a hurricane-tossed sea even less so.

You have to consider all the variables.

Losing power 10 miles from shore is not the same problem as losing it 180 miles from shore, with a line of storms approaching. You may be able to keep up with flooding in calm seas, but that doesn’t mean you will be able to with green water shipping over the bow.

Big weather creates problems not just for those on the water, but for those you might call on for rescue.  (Consider what the Coast Guard is flying in right now to find the lost crewmembers.)  The H-60 is an all-weather aircraft, but that doesn’t mean it doesn’t have limitations. Leaving when things are manageable for both you and the rescuers may be a better plan than waiting to see how it goes. The number of times I’ve heard “We’re going to wait until the morning,” as the last call a captain ever made would chill your soul.  That wait sometimes makes a rescue impossible.

With an out-of-control fire or progressive flooding, you are going to end up off the boat one way or the other, but that doesn’t mean those are the only times to leave the boat. Big wide hurricanes are unforgiving things, and no matter why you find yourself faced with one, consider everything when deciding how best to survive it.  When faced with approaching storms, I’ve seen sailors leave perfectly sound and watertight vessels and it was exactly the right thing to do.

The owner of Marine Flower II abandoned his perfectly good sailboat in November of 1994. It is exactly what he should have done. His boat wasn’t sinking, but after two days fighting seasickness and fatigue, his wife and daughter could only lay below with his infant son. In a matter of hours, he would have to single-hand his 64-foot ketch through a hurricane.  I don’t think he would have made it.  If he hadn’t called for rescue when he did, the search and rescue would have likely been just a search. Stepping down into the ocean was a very good idea. If you’re thinking you would have done differently, then you are exactly the kind of boater the Coast Guard often looks for, but never finds.

The water is cold out there and time is running out for the two left in the water from the Bounty – in survival suits I hope – and I know that rescue crews are doing all they can to find them while there is still light out there to look with. (on infra-red – an immersion suit is an invisibility suit)  For the rest of us safe at home, let’s keep the speculation to a minimum.  We’re almost never right about it anyway and sometimes, speculation is a very dangerous thing.

The views and opinions expressed by the author are not necessarily those of the Department of Homeland Security or the U.S. Coast Guard.

William Hughes (Will) Watson, president of Maritime security firm AdvanFort

As Hurricane Sandy moves ashore on the Eastern Seaboard of the United States, the storm’s effects are being felt by more than just the ports that have curtailed operations. Among the many maritime companies that are coping with the storm’s impact is the AdvanFort Company, a global maritime security firm based in the Washington, DC suburb of Herndon, Virginia. Contacted by gCaptain, Will Watson, president of AdvanFort, explained that the company’s global security operations – including its counter-piracy missions – are continuing uninterrupted by the hurricane.

“The maritime industry is the backbone of international commerce and never stops,” Mr. Watson said. “ And securing that industry cannot take a holiday just because of a storm – either at sea or one that passes uncomfortably close to our headquarters.” Mr. Watson, who is also vice president and governor of the Maritime Security Council, explained that his company has full redundancy in directing its security operations. “We operate a round-the-clock Maritime Operations Center (MOC) at our headquarters in Herndon but we also have out Global Operations Center located in Asia,” Mr. Watson explained. “Additionally, we can also direct operations from the SG OHIO, the flagship of our fleet of Operator Support Vessels, which is forward positioned in the northern Arabian Sea.”

AdvanFort is one of the oldest, most diversified and well equipped of the Private Maritime Security Companies (PMSCs) currently providing counter-piracy support to commercial vessels transiting the High Risk Area (HRA) for piracy. “We are the only PMSC to operate our own fleet of support vessels that are strategically located at key choke points surrounding the HRA. These vessels allow us to forward position PCASP (Privately Contracted Armed Security Personnel) teams as well as their equipment to facilitate embarkation to and disembarkation from client vessels without their having to divert from their planned courses,” Mr. Watson continued.

“In this particular storm event, senior company officials are continuing to discharge their duties from their homes while the headquarters has been secured in the interest of employee safety,” Mr. Watson noted. “Operations are continuing just as if everyone were in the office and there was no storm.”